Dear George,
I’ve been following the
presidential primaries fairly closely since they began, and they’re unlike any
campaigns that I can recall — mesmerizing, perplexing, sometimes
frightening. The Democratic contest has been a lot more competitive than
anybody expected, and the Republican party seems on the verge of
dissolution. In an effort to get a handle on it all, I’ve been busy
assembling various relevant facts. Though much of this information is
probably familiar, I pass it along for readers’ interest and
contemplation.
Love,
Dave
The
voters
How many Democrats and
Republicans are there?
A recent large national
survey of over 25,000 adults by the Pew Research Center found that 39% of
respondents identify as independents, 32% as Democrats, and 23% as
Republicans. Among independents, 48% lean Democratic, and 39% lean
Republican. Party identification as Democrats is higher among
blacks, Asians, Jews, Hispanics, well-educated adults, women (especially
college graduates and single women), and Millenials. Republican
identification is higher among whites (especially white evangelicals,
white southerners, and white males with some college or less); older persons
(ages 69-86); and Mormons. (13)
How often do various groups
vote?
58.4% of the eligible
population voted in the presidential election in 1996, 59.5% in 2000,
63.8% in 2004, 63.6% in 2008, and 61.8% in 2012. Voting rates by
race/ethnicity in 2012 were 66.2% for Blacks, 64.1% for Non-Hispanic Whites,
48,0% for Hispanics, and 47.3% for Asians. Women have voted in higher
numbers than men in recent decades (64% vs. 60% in 2012). Voting rates
generally tend to increase with age. In 2012 41.2% of 18- to 24-year-olds
voted, compared to 71.9% of those 65 years or older. (4) (21)
Campaign
funding
How much have the major
parties raised for the upcoming presidential election?
As of Apr. 26, 2016, the
Democratic Party has raised $370 million for presidential candidates in the
2016 Election cycle and has spent $324 million. The Republican Party has
raised $350 million to date and spent $330 million. (12)
Who gives to Republicans
and Democrats?
Political donors are
commonly subdivided into Business, Labor, Ideological, and miscellaneous Other
interests. Business accounts for 75% of contributions, followed by Labor
(3%), Ideological (6%), and Other (13%). According to Federal Election
Commission data (Apr. 16, 2016) on individual, corporate, and union
contributions to candidates, parties, super PACs, and outside spending groups,
Democrats received greater contributions from than Republicans from Labor
($21.9M vs. $4.6M). Republicans received greater contributions from
Business ($549M vs. $398M), Ideological ($34.5M vs. $34M), and Other sources
($101M vs. $94M). (12)
Who do Super PACS
support?
As of April 27, 2016, there
are 2,265 Super PACs, and they have raised $707,071,383 in the 2016 election
cycle. Of seventeen Super PACs spending ten million dollars or more
to date, 14 have supported Republican candidates and 3 have supported
Democrats. (12)
What has been the impact of
the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision?
In their Citizens United
vs. Federal Election Commission ruling (2010), the Supreme Court ruled that
corporations, like individuals, have free speech rights under the First
Amendment, and consequently unlimited political spending by corporations and
unions should be allowed. Critics were concerned that Citizens United
would result in a dramatic increase in corporate influence in politics,
enabling business corporations to “buy” elections. According to Wikipedia
information, however, corporate funding is relatively small compared to
donations from a small group of billionaires based on ideology. (23)
How much money has
been raised for specific candidates?
Candidate committee money
and outside money for current candidates as of Apr. 21, 2016, are as follows:
Hillary Clinton, $256 million; Bernie Sanders, $183 million; Ted Cruz, $142
million; Donald Trump, $51 million; John Kasich $29 million. (12)
The
Presidential primaries
Caucuses vs. Primaries
Some states use caucuses
and some use primaries to select party presidential candidates. Caucuses
were the original method but have decreased in number since the early twentieth
century. With caucuses, a party announces the date, time, and location of
the caucus, and any registered party voter can attend. Prospective delegates
are identified as supporting a specific candidate or as uncommitted, and an
informal vote to choose delegates is taken after several hours of
discussion and debate. Primaries, which were adopted as part of a reform
movement in the early 1900’s, allow registered voters to participate in
selecting a candidate by voting through a secret ballot, as in a general
election. In closed primaries, only voters who are registered for a given
party can vote in that party’s primary. In open primaries, a voter can
vote in either primary regardless of party membership. (20) In 2016
Just 14 states and 4 U.S. territories held or will hold caucuses.
Turnout tends to be lower in caucuses than in primaries. For example,
only 20% of registered Republicans participated in Iowa’s caucuses in 2012, but
31% voted in the primary election in New Hampshire. (5)
Proportional vs.
winner-take-all methods of awarding delegates
The Democrats use a
proportional method for awarding delegates. For example, if one candidate
gets 60% of the primary vote and a second gets 40%, the first gets 60% of the
delegates and the second, 40%. The Republican Party, in contrast, allows
each state to determine whether the proportional method or a winner-takes-all
method is used. In the winner-take-all method, the candidate who wins the
caucus or the primary vote receives all of the delegates. (20) The
Republican Party required states with primaries or caucuses before March
15 to award delegates on a proportional rather than winner-take-all
method. This year Florida and Ohio hosted the first Republican
winner-take-all contests on March 15. (5)
The
conventions
When are the conventions?
The Republican convention
will held from July 18 to July 21, 2016, in Cleveland. 2,472 delegates
are expected, and a candidate must win over 50% (1,237) to receive the party’s
nomination. The Democratic convention will be held from July 25 to
July 28 in Philadelphia. 4,765 delegates are expected, and a candidate
must win 2,383 delegates. (7)
Who are delegates?
Delegates to the national
convention are chosen at state and congressional district conventions.
Delegates are often party activists, local political leaders, members of
a campaign’s steering committee, or early supporters of a given candidate.
Presidential campaigns seek local and state politicians as delegates
because they usually bring the support of their followers. (5)
Superdelegates.
The Democratic Party uses
pledged delegates and superdelegates at the national convention. Pledged
delegates (about 85% of the total) are selected at the state or local level,
with the understanding that they will support a particular candidate.
However, they are not actually bound to vote for that candidate. Super
delegates (15% of the total) include members of the national committee, members
of Congress, governors, former presidents and vice presidents, former leaders
of the Senate and House, and former chairs of the Democratic National
Committee. (5) Superdelegates are not obliged to represent the
popular primary voting in their region, but rather are free to support any
candidate. The purpose of superdelegates is for high-ranking Democrats to
maintain a degree of control over the nomination process. Examples of
super delegates from Ohio this year are Senator Sherrod Brown, David Pepper
(chair of the Ohio Democratic Party), and Mark Mallory (former Cincinnati
mayor). (7) The Republicans also reserve a certain number of
delegate slots for high-ranking officials. In 2016 these include the
three members of each state’s national committee (less than 7% of the party’s
total delegates). The party has instructed state delegations to bind RNC
members based on voting results in their state. (5) (22)
Can Donald Trump win the
Republican nomination outright?
According to the New York
Times (Apr. 27, 2016), if Trump maintains his current level of support in the
remaining races, he can win a majority of 1,237 or more delegates before the
convention. However, it will be close, and if the race shifts even slightly
Trump could fall short. The outcome of Indiana’s primary on May 3 is
critical to Trump’s chances. He currently holds a single digit lead in
Indiana. (10)
What if no one gets a
majority on the first ballot?
Delegates become free
agents, no longer bound to follow the state’s primary results. Anti-Trump
forces are planning a delegate-by-delegate fight to back another candidate than
Trump. If there is a Republican rule change, the nominee could be someone
who is not currently in the race, e.g., House speaker Paul Ryan. (9)
The
candidates
How liberal or conservative
are the presidential candidates?
Crowdpac.com, a nonpartisan voter education website, rates the
candidates on a liberal/conservative dimension from 10L (the most liberal) to
10C (the most conservative), based on public statements, voting records, and
campaign contributions. The current candidate ratings from most liberal
to most conservative are: Bernie Sanders (8.2L), Hillary Clinton (6.5L), John Kasich
(4.6C), Donald Trump (5.1C), Ted Cruz (9.9C). Sanders is the most liberal
of the seven Democrats who entered the race or declined to run. Except
for Rand Paul, Ted Cruz is the most conservative of 16 Republican
candidates. (2)
How many endorsements have
candidates received from governors, senators, and representatives?
According to the Nate
Silver’s website, FiveThirtyEight (Apr. 25, 2016), Ted Cruz has received
endorsements from 5 governors, 3 senators, and 34 representatives; John Kasich,
from 3 governors, 2 senators, and 8 representatives; Donald Trump, from 3
governors, one senator, and zero representatives. Hillary Clinton has
been endorsed by 13 governors, 40 senators, and 160 representatives; Bernie
Sanders by 1 senator and 8 representatives. (15)
Who are some other
candidate endorsements? (A true but whimsical listing)
Ted Cruz: Jeb Bush, Gun
Owners of America, Texas Patriots PAC, Georgia Right to Life. John
Kasich: Arnold Schwarzenegger, Charles Barkley, Jim Tressel (former Ohio State
football coach). Donald Trump: Jerry Falwell, Jr., Clint Eastwood, Hulk
Hogan, Dennis Rodman, Mike Tyson. Bernie Sanders: Erin Brockovich, Julia
Butterfly Hill, Clay Aiken, Michael Keaton. Hillary Clinton: Amy Poehler,
Drew Barrymore, Ben Affleck, Tom Hanks. (24)
How do the candidates rate
on fact-checking?
Politifact.com assessed various candidate statements as True, Mostly
True, Half True, Mostly False, False, and Pants on Fire. For the
Democrats, statements were judged to be True or Mostly True 51% of the time for
Sanders, 49% of the time for Clinton. For the Republicans, statements
were judged True or Mostly True 52% of the time for Kasich, 22% of the time for
Cruz, and 9% of the time for Trump. (14)
How are the candidates
doing in the polls?
USA Today’s Elections 2016
Presidential Poll Tracker reports national poll results (as of Apr. 27, 2016)
as follows: Clinton, 49.5%; Sanders, 45.8% for the Democrats. For the
Republicans, Trump, 43.0%; Cruz, 30.0%; Kasich, 21.0%. (19)
How many primary delegates
have the candidates won so far?
According to USA Today
(Apr. 27), Trump has won 954 primary delegates; Cruz, 562; and Kasich,
153. Clinton has won 1,151; Sanders, 1,338. According to
FiveThirtyEight, based on results to date, Trump is on target to win 97% of the
primary delegates needed for the nomination; Clinton, 107%. (15) (18)
The
November election
What are the swing states
in 2016?
Swing states are those in
which no single candidate or party has overwhelming support, and consequently,
winning swing states is the best opportunity for candidates to increase their
electoral votes. According to the Rothenberg and Gonzales Political
Report, pure toss-up states and their total electoral votes are: Colorado (9),
Florida (29), Ohio (18), and Virginia (13). Toss-up states which tilt or
lean Democratic include: New Hampshire (4), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6), and
Pennsylvania (20). Toss-up states which tilt or lean Republican are:
North Carolina (15). Rothenberg and Gonzales list 19 states as favored or
currently safe for Democrats (223 electoral votes) and 23 states as favored or
currently safe for Republicans (191 electoral votes). (17)
How big a problem is voter
suppression in 2016?
The ACLU reports that 10
states are putting into place restrictive voting laws for the first time.
All have Republican-dominated state legislatures. Restrictions include
early voting cutbacks, elimination of same-day registration, Voter ID
requirements, proof of citizenship requirements, purging voter rolls, and
dual-registration systems (e.g., separate registration for federal and state
elections). Voter suppression disproportionately affects blacks and
Hispanics, the poor, the elderly, college students, and persons with disabilities
— mainly groups prone to vote Democratic. The ten states are Virginia,
North Carolina, Ohio, Alabama, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Kansas, Texas, North
Dakota, and Arizona. Combined, they contain 80 million people and account
for 129 of the 270 elector votes necessary to win the election. (1)
The Electoral College
The President and
Vice-President are not elected directly by the voters. Rather, their
votes function to elect the “electoral College,” the group of citizens chosen
by the political parties to cast votes for President and Vice-President.
With the exceptions of Maine and Nebraska, the candidates who win the popular
vote in a given state receive all of that state’s Electoral College
votes. The winner of the election is the candidate who receives 270 or
more of the 538 Electoral College votes. The Electoral College
system was devised by the nation’s founders who wanted to stay true to
republican principles but were wary about permitting average citizens to
vote. A state’s number of electoral votes is equal to the sum of its
numbers of Senators and Representatives. Thus, the bigger the state, the
more electors it has. However, like the Senate (with two members
per state), the Electoral College serves to shift power away from the nation’s
most populated states. For example, California gets 55 votes and Wyoming
gets 3, but, in fact, California’s population is 66 times greater than
Wyoming’s. Historically, five candidates have lost the popular vote
nationally but won the Electoral College vote and become president, including
George W. Bush over Al Gore in 2000. (vs2)
How do the Democratic and
Republican potential candidates currently fare against one another in national
polls?
According to realclearpolitics.com, if the election were held today, Clinton would
defeat Trump (49.0 to 40.5%) and Cruz (46.0 vs. 43.0%), but would lose to
Kasich (48.2 vs. 40.2%). Sanders would defeat Trump (53.0 vs. 37.8%),
Cruz (51.0 vs. 39.0%), and Kasich (46.8 vs. 42.0%) (16)
And that’s the story for
now.
SOURCES:
(1) www.aclu.org, “Will the 2016 Presidential Election Be Decided by
Voter Suppression Laws?”; (2) www.ballotpedia.org, “2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards”;
(3) www.ballotpedia.org, “Republican National Convention, 2016”; (4) www.census.gov, “The Diversifying Electorate”; (5) www.cfr.org, “The U.S. Presidentail Nominating Process”; (6) www.cincinnati.com,”Trump allies sidelined in KY delegate
battle”; (7) www.infoplease.com, “Superdelegates”; (8) www.nbcnews.com, “In Kentucky, Anti-Trump Forces Again Dominate Delegate
Selection”; (9) www.newsday.com, “GOP presidential race: How a brokered convention
would work”; (10) www.nytimes.com, “How the rest of the delegate race could unfold”;
(11) www.opensecrets.org, “Election Overview”; (12) www.opensecrets.org, “Super PACs”; (13) www.people-press.org, “A deep dive into party affiliation”; (14) www.politifact.com, “Fact-Checking the 2016 GOP presidential candidates”;
(15) www.projects.fivethirtyeight.com, “The Endorsement Primary”; (16) www.realclearpolitics.com, “General Election: Clinton vs. Trump”; (17) www.rothenberggonzales.com, “Presidential ratings”; (18) www.usatoday.com, “Elections 2016”; (19) Elections 2016 Presidential
Poll Tracker (USA Today) (4-27-16); (vs2) www.votesmart.org, “What is the Electoral College?”; (20) www.votesmart.org, “United States Presidential Primary”; (21) www.washingtonpost.com, “Why women are far more likely to vote than men”;
(22) www.wikipedia.org, “Delegate”; (23) www.wikipedia.org, “Citizens United v. FEC”; (24) www.wikipedia.org, “Endorsements for the Democratic (Republican) Party presidential
primaries, 2016”
