Letters for George: 2020 Democratic Hopefuls

Dear George,

The midterm elections are almost upon us, and there’s much speculation that the Democrats will take back the House. Beyond that, various pundits note that campaigning for the 2020 presidential election will begin the next day. So enormously important. While none of the frontrunners have declared themselves, a lot of names have been bandied about as potential Democratic candidates. The Guardian, Ballotpedia, and Wikipedia offer exhaustive slates, and I’ve also looked at lists compiled by the Washington Post, CNN, the New York Times, Politico, Politics1, the Business Insider, and Vox. The names that crop up most frequently across these various sources are: Joe Biden, Cory Booker, Sherrod Brown, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Deval Patrick, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. Here is some info that I found helpful in thinking about the field (sources are given at the end):

Joe Biden, former Vice-President of the United States

Born Nov. 20, 1942 (age 75), Scranton, PA
Education: University of Delaware (BA, 1965), Syracuse University College of Law (JD, 1968)
Offices held: 1973-2009, U.S. Senator (Dem., Del.); 2009-2017, U.S. Vice-President
Liberal ideology score: Not available (source: govtrack.us)
Key issues: foreign relations, criminal justice; drug policy; gun control; same-sex marriage; civil liberties; climate change.
Selected ratings: NA (source: votesmart.org
Selected endorsements: NA (source: votesmart.org)
Quote: “One of the things I’ve never been accused of is not caring about people.”
Personal: varsity football player at Delaware; 3rd youngest person ever elected to the Senate; lost his wife and daughter in a car crash in 1972, a son to brain cancer in 2015; never drinks alcohol
Strengths: near-universal name identification; appeal to blue-collar voters; a unifier who could be a consensus candidate for the party’s centrist and progressive wings; won reelection to the Senate six times; has fought for virtually all the Democrats’ constituent groups (women, non-whites, union members, environmentalists, etc.); demonstrated ability to negotiate with congressional Republicans; awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom (2017)
Drawbacks: Biden: will be 78 in 2020; thought of by some as a “goofball”; unimpressive campaigns in 1998, 2008; criticized for his handling of Clarence Thomas’s confirmation hearing and his votes for the 1994 crime bill and the 2005 bankruptcy bill; (cnn.com, nymag.com, nytimes.com, vanityfair.com)

Cory Booker, U.S. Senator from New Jersey

Born Apr. 27, 1969 (age 49), Washington, D.C.
Education: Stanford U. (BA, 1991; MA, 1992); U. Oxford (Rhodes scholar, 1994); Yale Law School (JD, 1997)
Offices held: 1998-2002, Member, Newark City Council; 2006-2013, Mayor of Newark, NJ; 2013-present, junior U.S. Senator (Dem., NJ)
Liberal ideology score (govtrack.us): .79/1.00 (#18/100 in Senate)
Key issues: criminal justice reform; women’s rights; affirmative action; single-payer healthcare; paid family leave; same-sex marriage; federal minimum wage increase; tax increases for the wealthy
Selected ratings (votesmart.org): Planned Parenthood 100%; NAACP100% ; ACLU 94%; National Education Association 100%; Brady Campaign (gun control) 100%; AFL-CIO 100%; Human Rights Campaign (gay rights) 100%; Americans for Democratic Action 95%
Selected endorsements (votesmart.org): Alliance for Retired Americans; Environment America; Human Rights Campaign; NARAL; N.J. AFL-CIO; Sierra Club
Quote: “When we are indivisible, we are invincible.”
Personal: varsity football, senior class president at Stanford; volunteered for Big Brothers Big Sisters; patrolled the streets himself as Newark mayor; targeted for assassination by Newark street gang leaders; vegan diet, exercises regularly, no alcohol.
Strengths: Known for his efforts at bipartisan cooperation; considered a spell-binding speaker; part of the “Hell-No Caucus” (with Harris, Gillibrand, Warren, and Sanders)
Drawbacks: Prior financial backing from Big Pharma, Jared, Kushner, and Ivanka Trump; assessments differ on whether he was a great success as Newark mayor (nyt.com, vanityfair.com)

Sherrod Brown, U.S. Senator from Ohio

Born Nov. 9, 1952 (age 63), Mansfield, OH
Education: Yale University (BA, 1974); Ohio State University (MPA, 1979; MA, Education, 1981)
Offices held: 1975-1982, Representative, Ohio State House of Representatives; 1983-1991, Secretary of State of Ohio; 1993-2007: Representative, OH 13^th District, U.S. House of Representatives; 2007-present, senior U.S. Senator (Dem., OH)
Liberal ideology score (govtrack.us): 0.83/1.00 (#11/100 in Senate)
Key issues: labor and labor unions; strong advocate of American manufacturing; health care reform; clean energy; education; critic of the financial and banking system; critic of free trade.
Selected ratings: Planned Parenthood 100%; NAACP 100%; ACLU 100%; National Education Association 100%; Brady Campaign (gun control) 100%; AFL-CIO 99%; Human Rights Campaign (gay rights) 100%; Americans for Democratic Action 95%
Selected endorsements: MoveOn.org, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, Ohio State Medical Association, SEIU District 1199, League of Conservation Voters
Quote: “I don’t talk about white voters and black voters. I talk about voters, and I talk about workers.”
Personal: Earned the rank of Eagle Scout; backpacked in India during the state of emergency declared by Indira Ghandi; the youngest person elected to Ohio’s House (age 22); a lifelong Cleveland Indians fan; buys all his suits at a Cleveland-area manufacturing plant.
Strengths: Along with Sanders and Warren, one of the best-known progressives in the Senate; advocate of progressive populism; has been called “perhaps the most class-conscious Democrat in Washington”; one of the most liberal voting records on social issues in Congress; strong labor backing, blue-collar appeal; draws some support from Trump voters; has won in rural and urban areas and in black and white communities; from a critical swing state.
Drawbacks: Says he is not considering a 2020 presidential bid; needs to get past a tough 2018 reelection bid (radio.wosu.org)

Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Senator from New York

Born Dec. 9, 1966 (age 51), Albany, NY
Education: Dartmouth College (BA, 1988); UCLA School of Law (JD, 1991)
Offices held: 2007-2009, member, U.S. House of Representatives; 2009-present, junior U.S. Senator (Dem, NY);
Liberal ideology score (govtrack.us): .92/1.00 (#5/100 in Senate)
Key issues: gender equality; abortion rights; same-sex marriage; sexual assault in the military; sexual harassment; advocacy against “boycotts” of Israel; single-payer healthcare; gun control.
Selected ratings: Planned Parenthood 100%; NAACP 100%; ACLU 88%; National Education Association ; Brady Campaign (gun control) 100%; AFL-CIO 88%; Human Rights Campaign (gay rights) 100%; Americans for Democratic Action 100%
Selected endorsements: Feminist Majority Political Action Committee; National Organization for Women; Sierra Club
Quote: “I believe transparency in government is key to restoring our nation’s faith in its elected leaders.”
Quote: “To change Washington, you need to change the women’s player list.”
Personal: Studied abroad in Beijing and Taiwan; interviewed the Dalai Lama as a college student; youngest Senator in the 111^th Congress; worked until the day of her son’s delivery; the first Democrat to call for Sen. Al Franken’s resignation
Strengths: part of the “Hell-No Caucus” (with Harris, Booker, Warren, and Sanders); has voted against Trump’s positions more than any other Senator
Drawbacks: Major contributions from Goldman Sachs, obligations to the financial services sector; started her career as a border hawk and a firm supporter of the Second Amendment, then flipped as a Senator (nyt.com, vanityfair.com)

Kamala Harris, U.S. Senator from California

Born Oct. 20, 1964, Oakland, CA (age 53)
Education: Howard U. (BA, 1986); U. California, Hastings College of Law (JD, 1989)
Offices held: 2004-2011: District Attorney of San Francisco; 2011-2017: Attorney General of California; 2017-present: junior U.S. Senator (Dem., Cal.)
Liberal ideology score (govtrack.us): 0.86/1.00 (#8/100 in Senate)
Key issues: Criminal justice reform; immigration reform; minimum wage increases; pro-choice; tuition-free college; Medicare for All
Selected ratings: Planned Parenthood 100%; NAACP 100%; ACLU N.A.; National Education Association 100%; Brady Campaign (gun control) N.A.; AFL-CIO 100%; Human Rights Campaign (gay rights) N.A.; Americans for Democratic Action N.A.
Selected endorsements: Feminist Majority PAC; NARAL; National Education Association; Sierra Club; United Farm Workers of America.
Quote: “I was raised to be an independent woman, not the victim of anything.”
Personal: Reads the entire New York Times on Sundays; favorite TV shows include 24, American Idol, SNL, and anything on CNN; enjoys Sunday family dinners.
Strengths: First U.S. Senator of Jamaican or Indian descent and the only the second black woman to be elected to the Senate. Ranked #1 as most progressive member of Congress by ProgressivePunch.org. Strongly challenged Trump’s cabinet nominees.
Drawbacks: Less than two years in Senate to date; less of a name brand than other frontrunners; 45^th out of 49 Senate Democrats in introducing bills in 2017; as California attorney general she declined to prosecute the bank once headed by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin for alleged foreclosure violations; her immigration concerns work in California but less so for the rest of the country (nytimes.com, vanityfair.com)

Deval Patrick, former Governor of Massachusetts

Born July 31, 1956 (age 62), Chicago, IL
Education: Harvard College (BA. 1978); Harvard Law School (JD cum laude, 1982)
Offices held: 1994-97, U.S. Assistant Attorney General; 2007-15, Governor of Massachusetts; 2016-present, managing director at Bain Capital
Liberal ideology score: NA
Key issues: gun control, public education, same-sex marriage, clean energy, immigration reform
Selected ratings: NA
Selected endorsements: NA
Quote: “I've fixed hard problems of all kinds, civil rights and business problems. It's the stuff I like to do, and I'm good at it, as a matter of fact... and I never left my conscience at the door.”
Personal: Raised by a single mother on the South Side of Chicago; won a scholarship for academically gifted minority students to Milton Academy; won“Best Oralist“ in law school; worked with the U.N. in Africa after college; awarded an honorary Doctor of Laws by Harvard University; the only politician on the Obama Foundation Board
2020 election:
Strengths: at 61, more youthful than many Democratic contenders; might be able to unite Clinton and Sanders wings; would energize the African American vote; strong support from President Obama
Drawbacks: Has only run for one office (governor) in his political career; failures and scandals as well as successes in Massachusetts; has spent the last few years at investment firm Bain Capital (fivethirtyeight.com, washingtonpost.com)

Bernie Sanders, U.S. Senator from Vermont

Born Sept. 8, 1941 (age 76), Brooklyn, NY
Education: University of Chicago (BS, 1964)
Offices held: 1981-89, Mayor of Burlington, VT; 1991-2007, Member, U.S. House of Representatives; 2007-present, U.S. Senate (Vermont, independent who caucuses with the Democrats)
Liberal ideology score (govtrack.us): 1.00/1.00 (#1 in Senate)
Key issues: Economic inequality, tax reform; financial reforms for Wall Street; $15 minimum wage; single-payer health care; paid parental leave; tuition-free public colleges and universities; campaign reform, expanding voting rights; climate change, renewable energy sources; same-sex marriage; pro-choice.
Selected ratings: Planned Parenthood 100%; NAACP 100%; ACLU 94%; National Education Association 100%; Brady Campaign (gun control) 100%; AFL-CIO 99%; Human Rights Campaign (gay rights) 100%; Americans for Democratic Action 100%
Selected endorsements: MoveOn.org, National Education Association, Planned Parenthood, Climate Hawks Vote
Quote: “Let us wage a moral and political war against the billionaires and corporate leaders, on Wall Street and elsewhere, whose policies and greed are destroying the middle class of America.”
Personal: Son of a Polish immigrant whose family died in the Holocaust; organizer for SNCC, participated in the first Civil Rights sit-in in Chicago history; lived on a kibbutz in Israel after college; taught low income children through Head Start; applied for conscientious objector status during the Vietnam War; taught political science at Harvard;
Strengths: Describes himself as a Democratic Socialist; leader of the Democrats’ progressive wing; ranked as most liberal Senator by govtrack.us; outspoken on the issues; has a strong grassroots organization and a network of volunteers; enthusiasm among younger voters; highest nationwide favorability rating of any politician in a 2017 Harvard-Harris poll (forbes.com)
Drawbacks: Sanders: will be 79 in 2020, no real allegiance to the Democratic party; “seems less vigorous than Trump”; vulnerable to attacks from a history of controversial words and deeds; Democrats may want a fresher face (nymag.com, vanityfair.com)

Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts

Born June 22, 1949, Oklahoma City (age 69)
Education: George Washington University; University of Houston (BS, 1970); Rutgers University-Newark School of Law (JD, 1976)
Offices held: 1977-1996, Professor of Law, numerous universities
1995-2012, Professor, Harvard Law School; 2013-present, senior U.S. Senator (Dem., Mass.)
Liberal ideology score (govtrack.us): 0.77/1.00 (#29 in Senate)
Key issues: consumer protection advocate; holding the financial industry accountable; advocate for working families; creating educational opportunities; expanding medical research; health care costs; tax policies that reward work, not wealth
Selected ratings: Planned Parenthood 100%; NAACP 100%; ACLU 94%; National Education Association100%; Brady Campaign (gun violence) 100%; AFL-CIO 100%; Human Rights Campaign (gay rights) 100%; Americans for Democratic Action 100%
Selected endorsements: Emily’s List, MoveOn.org, League of Conservation Voters, Democracy for America
Quote: “I want millionaires and billionaires and Big Oil companies to pay their fair share.”
Personal: grew up in a family “on the ragged edge of the middle class”; was a debate champion in high school; married at 19; voted Republican until 1995; the first woman voted to the Senate from Massachusetts; played by Kate McKinnon on Saturday Night Live; called “A New Sheriff of Wall Street” by Time Magazine; has three grandchildren;
Strengths: Fighter for middle class families; one of the nation’s top experts on bankruptcy and financial pressures facing middle class families; led creation of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
Drawbacks: Will be 71 in 2020, didn’t run for office until 2012; “not great in interviews and speeches”; “many people find her irritating” (fivethirtyeight.com, nytimes.com, vanityfair.com)

No single candidate appears to stand out as a superstar. The Washington Post ranks their top five in this order: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and Cory Booker. A recent Harvard CAPS/Harris poll (June 2018, usatoday.com) found the following preferences of Democratic voters for candidates to run in 2020: Biden, 32%; Hillary Clinton, 18%; Sanders, 16%; and Warren, 10%.

Several polls have queried nationwide samples of voters about their choices in head-to-head races against Trump. A CNN survey (Jan. 2018) found these results: Biden 57%, Trump 40%; Sanders 55%, Trump 42% (and also Oprah Winfrey 51%, Trump 42%). A Morning Consult/Politico poll (Nov. 2017) found: Biden 46%, Trump 35%; Sanders 42%, Trump 36%; generic Democrat 44%, Trump 35%. A Zobgy survey (May 2018) reported: Warren 43%, Trump 37%; Trump 39%, Booker 38%; Trump 39%, Harris 35%.

Professional oddsmakers’ predictions are less sanguine for the Democrats. All of them offer betting odds which strongly favor Donald Trump (both as the incumbent and because of a strong economy). skybet.com currently gives these odds on the various candidates reviewed here: Trump 11/8; Sanders 10/1; Warren 10/1; Harris 10/1; Biden 14/1; Gillibrand 25/1; Booker 33/1; Patrick 80/1; Brown 100/1. These odds, of course, will change substantially once the Democrats select their nominee.

My impression is that there’s isn’t a consensus first choice in this bunch, and many additional names have been suggested as prospects, e.g., Mitch Landrieu, Terry McAuliffe, Eric Holder Jr., Michael bloomberg, Chris Murphy, Andrew Cuomo Amy Klobuchar, Steve Bullock, Julian Castro, and John Hickenlooper. Political strategist Phil Singer who worked on Clinton’s 2008 campaign has suggested that it’s a weak field overall: “You have a bunch of Celine Dions but there’s no Beatles” (newsweek.com). I think that Biden and Sanders (and maybe Warren) are pretty old as prospective candidates, and several others are limited in experience. My own favorite is our Ohio senator, Sherrod Brown, although the oddsmakers aren’t optimistic. It will be an interesting year ahead. We need to hope and pray that the Democrats will come up with the best choice possible.

Love,

Dave

SOURCES:

ballotpedia.org, “Presidential candidates 2020”;

businessinsider.com, “10 Democrats who may run for president” (Dec. 28, 2017);

cnn.com, “The 2020 Democratic primary, as a March Madness bracket” (Mar. 15, 2018);

cnn.com, “The definitive ranking of 202 Democrats” (July 20, 2018);

daily dot.com, “Who’s going to challenge Trump in 2020?” (June 20, 2018);

fivethirtyeight.com, “It’s Time for A New 2020 Democratic Primary Draft!” (May 16, 2018);

forbes.com, “2020 Can Be Joe Biden’s Moment” (July 16, 2018);

newsweek.com, “Bernie Sanders will face Donald Trump in 2020 election, Democrats say”, 11-24-17);

nymag.com, “Democrats Need an Unbreakable Presidential candidate in 2020” (July 18, 2018);