Dear George,
We have “sheltered in place” for four months, and that arrangement appears likely to continue indefinitely. Our lives, while less damaged than most, remain pretty bleak. No outings, no social gatherings, no events, no sports, no music, no art, no restaurants, not much except TV and red wine. Recently, however, it’s been dawning on me that something stupendous and wonderful is likely to happen in the foreseeable future. I’m referring, of course, to the November elections. Every day more evidence becomes available that Trump has little or no possibility of being re-elected. In my mind, the inauguration of a new president in six months. I’m sure you’ve see the news reports. Here is a sampling:
87% of Americans are dissatisfied with how things are going in the country, and only 17% are proud of the country’s condition. (late June Pew survey; brookings.edu)
As of the end of June, only 39% approve of how Trump is handling his job as president. (Pew survey; brookings.edu)
Younger white working class voters (ages 18-39), a major Trump constituency, tend to view Trump’s presidency as “poor” or “terrible” (46%) and are unlikely to think that he handles race relations well (35%) or brings the country together (35%). (Pew survey; brookings.edu)
Trump has received severe criticism for mishandling the pandemic crisis and for his responses to protests over the death of George Floyd. (theguardian.com)
According to CNN analysts, “the toll the coronavirus will have taken on the American economy and people will be too great for him to overcome.” (cnn.com)
Though seniors (65 and over) favored Trump by 8 points in 2016, most surveys in June 2020 found Biden leading Trump by 2 to 8 points among seniors. (nbcnews.com)
A recent NY Times poll found Biden leading white women with college degrees by 39 points (compared to Hillary Clinton’s 7 point margin in 2016). (slate.com)
In 2016 Trump won white women without college degrees by 37%. Recent polls have found that number shrinking to single digits. (slate.com)
According to a June 2020 NYT poll, Biden is leading by 6 to 11 points in six battleground states that Trump carried in 2016 and that were crucial to his election: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina. (nytimes.com)
A late June Pew Center survey found Biden leading Trump nationally by 10 points, 54%-44%. (brookingsedu)
It sounds almost too good to be true, and I’m immediately reminded how we celebrated Hillary Clinton’s “landslide victory” up until the polls closed on election day. Momentous things could happen in coming months with the pandemic, the economy, race relations. And/or Joe Biden could mess up. Right now, however, there’s lots of reasons for anti-Trumpers to feel optimistic. I’m determined not to die from the coronavirus while Trump is in office. I plan to avoid all germs until 2021. (But in the worst circumstance, if need be, I’ll hide out at home till 2025).
Love,
Dave
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