A MODERN CHRISTMAS FABLE

Dear George, 

Mrs. Claus was worried. For weeks Santa hadn't been himself. Even though the season was here, he was staying in bed till noon each day. And when he got up, he never went to the workshop. God knows what the elves were doing. Mrs. Claus tried to ask what was wrong, but all he would do was shake his head and say there is no hope. As it turns out, Santa was convinced that the spirit of Christmas was dead. People were ruled by hate rather than love. All around the world countries were forsaking democracy and turning to fascism. Mass killings and political violence were at their peaks. America was the worst. A majority of the nation’s voters were ignorant of the issues, and elections were a farce. The country's future looked dismal. 

Mrs. Claus asked Santa what he was going to do. At first Santa wouldn't say anything. Then he finally explained that he was going to skip Christmas. “Skip Christmas”, Mrs. Claus said in horror. “Why you can’t do that. Christmas is your whole life.” “The people have decided,” Santa said dejectedly. “Christmas no longer has a place in their world.” Soon Christmas Eve did arrive, and, instead of hooking up his reindeer to their sleigh, Santa drank a large Scotch and went to bed. His wife wrung her hands and cried. But Santa had made his decision. 

Christmas morning arrived, and children around the world leapt out of bed and rushed down to the family Christmas tree. Imagine their surprise. The stockings on the fireplace were empty. The cookies and milk they’d left for Santa and his reindeer were untouched. And not a single gift was under the tree. Such weeping and wailing. And when the parents came down they were equally puzzled. What had happened to Santa? It didn’t take long for the word to get around. Santa hadn't come to anybody’s house. Something terrible had happened. 

Rumors abounded, Some thought that Santa’s sleigh had collided with a meteor. Others thought that pirates had captured him and made him walk the plank. A few thought that a multi-billionaire had bought up all of Santa’s presents and kept them for himself. However, in Punxsutawney Pennsylvania little children Betsy and Billy Baumgarten had their own idea. From watching TV news and listening to their parents’ conversations, they determined that Santa was so sad about the state of the world that he couldn't bring himself to deliver gifts this year. Betsy and Billy put their theory on Tik Tok, and their message went viral. Thousands of hits, then hundreds of thousands and millions and billions. All around the globe children realized that Betsy and Billy were correct, and they tried to figure out how they could bring back the spirit of Christmas for Santa. The children left their houses. They shoveled their elderly neighbors’ sidewalks, helped blind people across the street, brought groceries to needy families. The older children wrote letters to political leaders and recruited their parents to their cause. 

Santa watched all these developments with amazement. "Good for the children,” he said, "I should never have doubted them.” Though the world remained deeply troubled, the childrens’ efforts made Santa optimistic for the future. He began planning for the best Christmas ever in the coming year. 

 Love, 

 Dave

TEN THOUGHTS I HAD THIS WEEK

 Dear George, 

By and large, the American public is ill-informed and ignorant, hostile and destructive. 

The illustrious voters of the state of Ohio ousted one of the most competent members of the U.S. Senate, elected three extremist pro-life justices to the state Supreme Court, and decisively rejected an issue designed to end gerrymandering in Ohio. 

Neo-Nazis are euphoric. 

The current president and white women voters own some of the blame for this disaster. 

We did survive the first term of the new president (though he appears more unhinged and anti-democratic than the last time around). 

Given advanced age and four long years, the vice-president may take over, an equally (and maybe even more) undesirable prospect. 

The U.S. Supreme Court is going to be a backwards force in the nation for decades.  

It’s possible that the new administration will be so catastrophic that it will mean the end of MAGA Republicanism. 

Katja wants to move to New Zealand though that is far away. 

This could be the last president of our lifetimes, a disgusting way to wind things up. 

Love, 

Dave

IS BIDEN TOO OLD?

 Dear George, 

If you ask the average voter if Joe Biden is too old to serve a second term as president, you’ll get a resounding “yes”. A recent poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 77% believed Biden to be too old to be effective for four more years. 89% of Republicans said that, as did 74% of Independents and 69% of Democrats. And the view held across age groups, though older Democrats were more supportive of his 2024 bid. In a word association exercise, 28% of Democrats mentioned Biden’s age and preferred words like “slow” or “confused” over “president,” “leader,” “strong,” or “capable.” 

We all carry around stereotypes about age. My own views were shaken up when I attended my 50th high school class reunion some years ago. All of my classmates were about the same age (68). Some appeared to be extremely frail, including a grade school friend who was hooked up to an oxygen tank. At the opposite extreme, everyone was astonished by one of our classmates who looked exactly as he had in his senior yearbook photo. Chronological age didn’t seem to mean much, given the vast differences in how individuals had responded to the aging process. 

There are many examples of prominent people who have remained active and productive in their eighties and beyond. At age 92 multi-billionaire Warren Buffett continues to run Berkshire Hathaway. British broadcaster David Attenborough is still producing wildlife documentaries at age 96. Nancy Pelosi, regarded as the most successful house speaker of all times, was in her eighties during her second term. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg served on the Supreme Court until she was 87. Seven U.S. senators are in their eighties, including Bernie Sanders and Mitch McConnell. Octagenarian musicians who are still touring and recording include: Willie Nelson, 87; Dionne Warwick, 82; Paul McCartney, 80; Ringo Starr, 82; Yoko Ono, 87; Bob Dylan, 81; and Barbra Streisand, 80. 

There are also a number of heads of state who are currently serving and who are older than Biden. These include the President of Italy (age 82), the President of Cameroon (90), the President of the Palestinian Authority (87), the King of Norway (86), the King of Saudi Arabia (87), Pope Francis (86), the Queen of Denmark (83), the President of Ireland (82), and one of the oldest leaders of all time, Queen Elizabeth II who died in 2022 at age 96. 

Gerontologists do not jump to judgment as rapidly as the American public. A team of gerontologists at Washington University suggest that important qualities for effectiveness as President include honesty, integrity, experience in the processes of democracy, knowledge of history and science, and respect from other world leaders. None of these factors is particularly correlated with chronological age. To the extent that age is relevant, it’s because it gives more opportunities for experience and well-developed relationships. The authors note: “Our country doesn’t need a president who is physically strong or fast. They’re not going to have to win a foot race or lug heavy things around.” A team of longevity researchers at the University of Illinois examined the available medical records of Biden and Trump and concluded that both “are likely to be ‘super-agers’,” a subgroup of people that maintain their mental and physical functioning and tend to live longer than average for their age. 

Biden has had a very successful first term. He signed into law the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, providing $1 trillion for infrastructure projects. He rejoined the Paris Agreement on climate change and made significant investments in clean energy and energy efficiency. Biden signed executive orders to reopen enrollment on the Affordable Care Act exchanges and to lower prescription drug costs. He has appointed more women and people of color to the federal courts than any president in history, including Supreme Court Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson. Perhaps most notably Biden has worked to repair alliances with allies and partners around the world. 

On most dimensions the economy has been doing very well during Biden’s administration. Over 13 million jobs have been added, and the unemployment rate of 3.6% is the lowest since 1969. Gross Domestic Product growth has exceeded 6% in three of the last four quarters, and the stock market is at record highs. The main downside is that inflation (8.2%) is at its highest rate since 1981. Biden has taken steps to address inflation, such as releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and working to pass legislation for lower prescription drug costs. Predicting the future, of course, is an iffy business. 

Dr. Karl Pillemer, a prominent gerontologist at Cornell University, sums it up this way: "There is no one answer to the question of whether or not President Biden is too old to be president. It depends on a number of factors, including his health, his cognitive abilities, and his energy level. It is important to note that there is a great deal of variation in aging, and some people remain sharp and healthy well into their eighties and nineties.” 

Biden’s own response to the question is probably the best answer: “Watch me.” 

Love, 

Dave 

SOURCES: (1) apnews.com, “Biden is widely seen as too old for office.” Aug. 28, 2023; (2) brookings.edu, “Is Biden too old to be president? Is Trump?” May 19, 2023; (3) publichealth.wustl.edu, “Too old to be president? A view from some gerontologists,. Aug. 8, 2023; (4) whitehouse.gov, “The Biden-Harris Record,” accessed Nov. 6, 2023.

OHIO ISSUE TWO: LEGALIZING RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA

Dear George, 

My home town of Menominee, Michigan, is located smack on the border between Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula. When I was a kid, Wisconsin, the dairy state, legally banned the sale of margarine (regarded as an evil competitor to butter). An enterprising businessman in Menominee opened a margarine shop at the foot of the Interstate Bridge, and the business boomed, thanks to a deluge of Wisconsinites.

Now history is repeating itself. Recreational marijuana is legal in Michigan but is illegal in Wisconsin. Recently the Menominee City Council approved the establishment of marijuana stores in the town, and, within a matter of weeks, five brand new marijuana stores opened for business: The Fire Station, RIZE, Lume, Higher Love, and Nirvana. Because their buildings are still under construction, the five dispensaries currently operate only with curbside or drive-through services. According to the local newspaper, Lume has 40 parking spaces and room for 25 more cars to wait in line. The Lume manager reports, “We stay pretty busy all day…People are really excited…” 

In about two weeks Ohioans will vote on a proposed constitutional amendment that would legalize and regulate the adult use of marijuana in Ohio. The amendment allows adults 21 and over to purchase and use up to 2.5 ounces of cannabis flower and 15 grams of cannabis concentrate. It would also allow adults to grow up to six marijuana plants at home. Dispensary sales would be taxed 10% in addition to the usual sales taxes. The Division of Cannabis Control would be established in Ohio to regulate commerce, and cannabis testing laboratories would be regulated. 

The Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol, a group of Ohio medical marijuana businesses, is leading the campaign in favor of the ballet initiative and submitted 127,772 valid signatures in August, 2023, in order to get Issue 2 on the ballot. Parties in favor of legalizing recreational marijuana in Ohio include a variety of pro-marijuana organizations, e.g., Ohio Consumers for Safe Cannabis, Ohio Cannabis Chamber of Commerce, the Firelands Company, Cresco Labs Ohio. 

Issue 2 has generated a lot of debate. The main arguments favoring legalization are the following: *Decriminalization of marijuana would end unfair and costly arrests and prosecutions for minor offenses. Ohio had over 60,000 marijuana arrests in 2022. These arrests can cause lasting damage to people’s lives, making it difficult to get jobs or housing, and they disproportionately affect persons of color.  Legalizing marijuana would free up police officers to address more serious crime. 

*Marijuana is purported to have lower risks than alcohol, and, unlike alcohol, it has some health and medical benefits. There are no cases of anyone ever dying from an overdose of marijuana. 

* Ohioans would be able to buy products that are regulated and safe from being laced with deadly or addictive substances such as fentanyl. 

* Legalizing marijuana would create a new source of tax revenue for Ohio. Colorado has generated over $2 billion in tax dollars since marijuana was legalized in 2012. Estimates for Ohio point to tax revenues of $300 to $400 million per year. 

* Legalization would reduce the size of the black market for marijuana, making it more difficult for criminals to profit from marijuana sales. 

Issue 2 is opposed by Protect Ohio Workers & Families, a broad coalition which includes: the Ohio Business Roundtable, Ohio Manufacturers Association, Ohio State Sheriffs’ Association, Association of Chiefs of Police, Fraternal Order of Police, Academy of Health Commissioners, American Academy of Pediatrics, and the Ohio Children’s Hospital Association. In addition, top government officials in Ohio have urged a No vote: Governor, Attorney General, President of the Ohio Senate, Speaker of the Ohio House. 

Arguments against passing Issue 2 include the following: 

*Marijuana is addictive and could lead to more serious drug use. Marjiuana today is much more potent than it was in the past. 

*Marijuana has negative effects on thinking and coordination, with potentially dangerous consequences for operating motor vehicles and job safety. While research results are mixed, a Colorado study found that the rate of marijuana-positive drivers involved in fatal crashes increased 48% after legalization. 

*Legalization will not eliminate the black market for marijuana. 

* Criminals will still be able to sell marijuana illegally, often at lower prices than the legal market. 

*Home-grown marijuana will expose more youth to a psychoactive drug. 

* “Legalizing recreational marijuana is today’s version of Big Tobacco — big corporations getting rich at the expense of our kids and society.” (Protect Ohio Workers & Families). 

*Legalization will require another state bureaucracy with increased governmental costs. 

To date, 23 states and the District of Columbia (about 49% of Americans) have legalized recreational marijuana use. It appears likely that Issue 2 will pass in Ohio by a large margin. Numerous surveys have found a majority of Ohioans favoring passage. A recent Suffolk University/USA Today poll showed that 59% of Ohio voters support adults buying and possessing marijuana, while only 36% were opposed. 77% of Democrats, 63% of independents and 40% of Republicans support the issue.  Positions vary markedly by age. A recent Baldwin Wallace University survey found that 70% of voters between the ages of 18 and 34 supported legalizing marijuana. However, only 34% of voters 65 or older did so. 

At this point I count myself in the “Undecided” voter category. I find the arguments persuasive on both sides of a complex issue. I don’t believe in alcohol abstinence, though it’s regarded as a more destructive drug, so it seems sort of hypocritical to vote to ban marijuana. On the other hand, I’m impressed that most or all law-enforcement and medical groups argue against legalization. I plan to ponder this some more and make up my mind by November 7th. 

Love, 

Dave 

SOURCES: ballotpedia.org. Ohio Issue 2, Marijuana Legalization Initiative 2023); ideastream.org, “What is Ohio Issue 2 on marijuana legalization?” Oct. 19, 2023; League of Women Voters of Cincinnati Area. Hamilton County Voter Guide. Issue 2; pewresearch.org. “7 facts about Americans and marijuana.” Apr. 13, 2023; uppermichiganssource.com. “City of Menominee now has 5 cannabis dispensaries open for business.” Oct. 9, 2023; wikipedia.org. “2023 Ohio Issue 2.”

WHO ARE THESE PEOPLE?

 

Dear George, 

 The top news story of the past week, of course, was Kevin McCarthy’s ouster as Speaker of the House. The Speakership is one of the most important positions in the U.S. government, responsible for conducting House proceedings, setting its agenda, deciding which bills come up for debate, appointing members to committees, and representing the House in dealings with the President and the Senate. (2) The vote to oust McCarthy was not accompanied by any plan regarding his successor, and no consensus is apparent among Republican House members. Currently there are two declared candidates for the job: Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Jim Jordan (R-OH). In addition, the New York Times identifies other potential candidates including Tom Emmer (R-MN), Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Kevin Hern (R-OK), Tom Cole (R-OK), and Patrick McHenry (R-NC). (7) Here is a bit of info about each. 

 As House Majority Leader, Steve Scalise is seen by many as the frontrunner for the Speaker position. A staunch conservative, Scalise receives a rating of 95% by the American Conservative Union. He has repeatedly voted to appeal the Affordable Care Act, has supported tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, opposed same-sex marriage, opposed gun control, and supported voter suppression. Scalise has been criticized for his past associations with white supremacy and anti-Semitic groups. A Louisiana political reporter quoted him as describing himself as “like David Duke (the former KKK leader) without the baggage.” While a leading candidate, Scalise’s chances are diminished by opposition from far-right House Republicans who think that he is not sufficiently conservative. He is also receiving intensive treatment for blood cancer. (7) 

 Ohio representative Jim Jordan, the Ranking Member of the House Judiciary Committee, is the other declared candidate for the Speaker position, and Donald Trump has endorsed him for the job (which may or may not have any impact). Receiving a rating of 100% from the American Conservative Union, Jordan is one of the most conservative House members. He was the founding chairman of the far-right Freedom Caucus in the House. Known as a conservative bomb thrower (4), Jordan is one of Trump’s top allies and a leader in the impeachment inquiry into President Biden. While Jordan has strong support from the extreme wing of the Republican party, the New York Times concluded that, because of his divisiveness, he “is not likely to muster a majority of the House Republican conference.” (9) 

 As House Majority Whip, Tom Emmer’s profile is similar to Scalise’s. Emmer (82%, ACU) has actively supported tax cuts for the wealthy, opposed abortion rights even when the mother’s life is in danger, strongly supported gun rights, opposed environmental regulation. Critics argue that his record in Congress reflects inaction and gridlock. Because he voted to certify Biden’s election and advised Republican candidates to distance themselves from Trump, Emmer is actively opposed by Trump allies and is deemed unlikely to win sufficient support for the Speaker position. (3, 11) 

 Elise Stefanik (98%, ACU) is the third-ranking Republican in the House, serving as Majority Whip. Despite being regarded as a moderate Republican before Trump’s election, she became one of Trump’s most enthusiastic allies in the House, having defended him on numerous occasions, including during his impeachment trials. Stefanik objected to certification of Biden’s victory, has voted against legislation that would protect LGBTQ people from discrimination, and has spoken at events hosted by white supremacist organizations. Stefanik is seen as a rising star in the Republican Party, but it’s unclear if she has the experience or the support to become Speaker. (10) 

 Kevin Hern (98%, ACU) is chair of the Republican Study Committee, the largest caucus of conservative Republicans in the House, and he is popular among the Republican base. Like most of the prospective candidates he has been a vocal supporter of Trump, voted to overturn the 2020 election, supported tax cuts for the wealthy, opposed environmental regulations, supported gun rights, opposed expanded access to voting, and called for President Biden’s impeachment. Hart may be a viable candidate, but he faces challenges because of his lack of experience and his polarizing views. (7) 

 Tom Cole (92%, ACU) is Chair of the House Rules Committee. Like his colleagues mentioned above, Cole has opposed the Affordable Care Act, supported tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, opposed gun control measures, opposed abortion rights, denied climate change, and supported voter suppression legislation. Cole is a respected member of the Republican Party, but he is not as well-known as Scalise or Emmer. 

 (1) Patrick McHenry (89%, ACU), selected by McCarthy to be the interim Speaker of the House, is also Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. While McHenry is well-liked, he is distrusted by hard-liners because of his role in the recent deal with Democrats to avoid a government shutdown. McHenry hasn’t yet expressed interest in the permanent Speaker job. (6) 

 My personal opinion is that all of these candidates are nightmares and likely to have have negative consequences upon Congress and American society. Most are to the right of Kevin McCarthy, who is himself a staunch conservative. However, I do recognize that they’re typical of the current Republican Party and its leadership, as well as enjoying the approval of roughly half the country. According to Newsweek, recent bookmaker odds have Scalise the favorite (odds of 8/11, meaning if you bet $11 you would win $8), followed by Hern (9/2) Jordan (8/1), Stefanik (10/1), Emmer (14/1), and McHenry (14/1). (5) It’s surprising to me that there are no moderate Republicans who are mentioned as viable candidates for Speaker. However, moderate Republicanism is a vanishing breed in the House, and, because the party conference is controlled by the far right, it’s unlikely that any moderate could be voted into the position. Election as Speaker requires 218 votes in the 435-seat House. How any of these candidates are going to reach this magic number is an unknown. Election as Speaker is going to require voting support from hard-liners, moderate Republicans, and even some Democrats, and, with the far right in control of the House, it isn’t clear that any of the potential candidates can pull that off. With decisions about government funding and Ukraine support looming for House action in the next month or so, the outlook is scary. 

Love, 

Dave 

 SOURCES: (1) cole.house.gov; (2) housegov; (3) huffpost.com, Sept. 4, 2022; (4) nbcnews.com, Oct. 4, 2023; (5) newsweek.com, Oct. 7, 2023; (6) npr.com, Oct. 4, 2023; (7) nytimes.com, Oct. 4, 2023; (8) nytimes.com, Oct. 4, 2023; (9) nytimes.com, Oct. 2, 2023; (10) time.com, May 8, 2021; (11) time.com, Oct. 4, 2023.

OHIO POLITICS 2022

Dear George, 

This is a big year in Ohio politics. In particular, the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Tim Ryan and Republican J. D. Vance will be one of the critical contests determining whether Democrats retain control of the Senate. In addition, the governorship race pits Republican incumbent Mike DeWine against Dayton mayor Nan Whaley, and there are numerous U.S. House seats up for grabs. I’ve spent some time trying to get a firmer grasp on the current Ohio political scene. Here’s what I’ve learned (numbers in parentheses refer to sources at the end). 

 Ohio has long been regarded a swing state, narrowly voting for winning presidential candidates in 14 consecutive elections from 1964 to 2016 (6 Democrat winners, 6 Republicans). However, Trump carried Ohio by comfortable 8-point margins in both 2016 and 2020 despite losing nationally by 2 points in 2016 and by 4 points in 2020. The Republican Party currently controls the Governor’s office, the Ohio House, and the Ohio Senate. All non-judicial state elected officials have been Republicans since 2010, as are currently 12 of 16 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and one of two U.S. Senators. Senator Sherrod Brown is the sole statewide Democratic winner. Most experts suggest that Ohio has migrated from being a battleground state to being a Republican-leaning state. (3, 10, 11, 13) 

A recent Gallup poll asked residents of all 50 states to indicate whether their political views were liberal, moderate, or conservative. In 44 of 50 states residents were more likely to identify as conservative than as liberal. Ohio was the 25th most conservative state, slightly less conservative than the national average. 37% of Ohio respondents identified themselves as conservative; 35% as moderate; and 22% as liberal. (7) As of Oct. 1, 2021, party registration of nearly 8 million voters in Ohio was: Democratic (947,027, 11.8%); Republican (836.080, 10.4%), and Unaffiliated (6,196,547, 77.6%). (16) 

Demographically, Ohio political patterns are similar to other Midwestern states. According to the Pew Research Center, Whites in Ohio are more likely to identify as Republicans, especially white men without college educations. Latinos, Asians, and especially African-Americans identify more often as Democrats. Gender differences are sizable. 46% of Ohio Republicans are women, 51% of Independents are women, and 59% of Democrats are women. 44% of Ohio Republicans have household incomes of $50,000 or more, compared to 34% of Democrats. Educational levels are quite similar. 26% of Republicans have college or post-graduate degrees compared to 25% of Democrats. (11) 

Like other Midwestern states, Ohio has a strong urban/rural political divide. Over the last twenty years urban areas in Ohio have become more reliably Democratic, while rural areas have become more reliably Republican. (7) In 2020 Biden won by 510,000 votes in Ohio urban counties, but lost by 615,000 votes in rural counties and by 373,000 votes in suburban counties. (7) Biden carried just 7 of Ohio’s 88 counties in 2020 (those containing Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Akron, Toledo, Dayton, and the university town of Athens). All 81 countries with smaller demographics went for Trump. Biden won decisively in Hamilton County (Cincinnati, 57.2%), but lost by still larger margins in neighboring Butler County (37.3% for Biden), Warren County (33.9%), and Clermont County (30.9%). (13) Ohio’s three largest urban counties (where Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati are located) represent only 44% of the state’s population. Consequently Democrats have to increase votes from rural and suburban voters in order to win in statewide elections. (7) 

The religious right has enthusiastically endorsed the Republic party and vice versa. A Pew Research Center survey on party affiliation and religion among Ohio adults found marked differences. Majorities of Catholics, Evangelical Protestants, and Mainline Protestants were more likely to identify as Republicans than as Democrats. Unaffiliated respondents (no religious preference) were more likely to identify as Democrats (53% vs. 23%). Compared to Democrats, Republicans were more likely to be absolutely certain of their belief in God, regard religion as very important to their life, attend religious services at least once a week, pray daily, and look to religion most often for guidance on right and wrong. (11) 

The congressional map in Ohio is gerrymandered in favor of Republicans. Though Republican candidates generally receive no more than 55% of the statewide popular vote, they make up 65% of Ohio House members (64-35) and 76% of Ohio state senators (25-8). In 2018 Ohio voters passed a constitutional amendment to reform redistricting in the state and make it harder to gerrymander. However, efforts to put the new law into effect have been a disaster, and the most recent congressional map approved by the Republican legislature and governor is as gerrymandered as ever. The current map gives Republicans 75-80% of Ohio’s congressional seats. Because only Republicans voted for it, this map will only be valid for two election cycles, with Ohio going through another redistricting process in 2025-26. (6) Of local interest, Republican U.S. representative Steve Chabot is now running in a newly drawn district in the Cincinnati area that Biden would have carried by 9 points in 2020 and faces a tough re-election campaign against Cincinnati city councilman Greg Landsmann. (14) 

The polices and agenda of the Ohio Republican and Democratic parties are similar to their national counterparts. The Ohio GOP website states that “Ohio Republicans are working hard to enact policies that grow our economy, shrink government and protect our freedoms. (9) Ohio Democratic party principles include an efficient yet understanding government, fair and equal representation, strengthening families and protecting children, affordable housing, condemnation of discrimination, top priority to health and safety, protection from violence and crime, respect for elders, and pursuing these ideals with honest and integrity. (8) The Republican-dominated state legislature has recently passed or is currently proceeding with bills to allow teachers to carry guns in the classroom, reduce the amount of training needed for gun-carrying teachers, remove a requirement that concealed carry permit holder notify law enforcement that they are armed when stopped, ban transgender girls from girls’ sports, prohibit green-card-holding immigrants from voting in local elections, require that courts consider public safety when setting bail amounts, begin sports gambling in the state, limit the governor’s ability to issue health orders, put R or D next to names on the ballot for Supreme Court candidates (because 3 Democrats were elected in the past two years), allowing doctors to deny treatment if it violates their personal beliefs, enacting a 3% income tax cut, and a bill encouraging that Canada be added to a watch list of countries which violate religious freedom. (4)(5) 

The 2022 Republican primary election suggests how the party has changed in Ohio in recent years. While the party used to nominate and elect mainstream conservatives like George Voinovich, John Kasich, Rob Portman, and Mike DeWine, this year’s Republican Senate hopefuls included mostly ideological extremists who are tied to Trump and the Freedom caucus (Josh Mandel, J. D. Vance, Jane Timken, and Mike Gibbons). The sole moderate Republican in the race, wealthy businessman Matt Dolan, received only 23% of Republican primary votes (i.e., 77% went to Trumpites). Endorsed by Trump, “Hillbilly Elegy” author J. D. Vance won the primary with 32% of the votes and will face Democratic candidate U.S. Rep.Tim Ryan in the general election. (13) The most recent Ohio senate poll by Suffolk University (6/2/22) shows a neck-and-neck race, with Vance leading slightly (42%) over Ryan (39%). The researchers suggest, however, that because of economic problems and Biden’s low approval ratings this gap will likely grow larger between now and the election. (1) RacetotheWH, one of the nation’s most accurate political forecasters, currently predicts winning chances of 74% for J. D. Vance and 26% for Tim Ryan, with a projected margin of victory of 3.3% for Vance. (13) In the Ohio governor’s race the Suffolk University poll found that Republican incumbent Mike DeWine has a substantial lead (45%) over Dayton mayor and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Nan Whaley (30%). (4a) 

What does the future hold? If you are a Republication, you are probably feeling quite content. If a Democrat, probably anxious. The American Enterprise Institute, the Republican-affiliated conservative think tank, points out that rural areas have become much more Republican in the last three years, urban areas have become increasingly Democrat, and the suburbs are the new swing areas. Because the Ohio vote is more concentrated in rural areas and small towns, the state is likely to become more solidly red in coming years if these trends in urban-suburban-rural voting continue. (1a) I haven’t run across any sources that are more optimistic about the Democrats’ prospects. It looks like they have their work cut out for them. 

 Love, 

Dave 

 SOURCES: 270towin.com, Ohio 2022 Senate Election Polls. June 3, 2022; (1a) aei.org, Ohio, Texas, and the Future of American Politics. Dec.10, 2021; (2) ballotpedia.org, Ohio General Assembly. Undated, accessed June 3, 2022; (3) blogs.lse.ac.uk, What Happened?: The 2020 election confirmed that Ohio is no longer a swing state. Sept. 2, 2021; (4a) crowdwisdom.live. Ohio Governor Race 2022 Polls. June 3, 2022; (4) dispatch.com, “Ohio lawmakers have introduced at least 28 gun bills.” May 27, 2022. (5) dispatch.com, “Ohio Politics: Guns in classrooms, transgender sports ban…” June 2, 2022; (6) fivethirtyeight.com, Ohio’s Redistricting Process Has Been a Roller Coaster. Apr. 28, 2022; (7) news.gallup.com, Conservatives Greatly Outnumber Liberals in 19 U.S. States. Feb. 22, 2019; (8) ohiodems.org, Ohio Democratic Party Constitution and By-Laws 2021. Undated; (9) ohiogop.org, Ohio Republican Party. Undated; (10) ohiosos.gov, Secretary of State Provides Update on Party Affiliation Data. Oct. 1, 2021; (11) pew research.org, Party affiliation among adults in Ohio. Undated; (12) politico.com, Ohio presidential results. Jan. 6, 2021; (13) racetothewh.com, Ohio Senate Forcast and Polls. Jun 3, 2022; (14) rollcall.com, As Ohio became reliably red, the Republican Party was changing. Feb. 24, 2022; (15) rollcall.com, New Ohio map leaves Chabot, Kaptur facing tough races this fall. May 2, 2022; (16) en.wikipedia.org, Politics of Ohio. May 17, 2022.

WHAT'S ALL THIS FUSS ABOUT THE FILIBUSTER?

 Dear George, 

I’m by no means a political junkie, but I try to keep abreast of the news as best I can. Recently I’ve been confused about all the controversy regarding use of the ilibuster in the Senate. The Democrats are pressing for reform but can’t get consensus in their own ranks. Joe Biden has changed his opinion in recent months. What’s been most confusing to me is how the filibuster is connected to 60 votes being necessary to pass legislation in the 100-member Senate. After some reading I did manage to figure that out. Here’s what I learned about that and other matters. 

Love, 

Dave 

 What is the definition of “filibuster”? The U.S. Senate defines “filibuster” as “the tactic of using long speeches to delay action on legislation.” (11) 

 Where does the word “filibuster” come from? The word derives from the Spanish “filibustero” (“freebooting”), a reference to 16th century pirates who plundered ships and colonies. Its first use in a political sense occurred in the late 1800s when it was an insult directed toward lawmakers who held up legislation by effectively “raiding” the Senate like pirates. (4) 

 When did the filibuster begin in the Senate? The filibuster is not part of the Constitution, nor was it recognized in original Senate rules. The original rules specified that cutting off debate of a motion required a simple majority. The filibuster was accidentally created in 1806 when Vice President Aaron Burr argued that the rarely used majority rule was redundant, and the Senate eliminated it as a housekeeping matter. Though not their intent, the change gave senators the right to unlimited debate, meaning that they could indefinitely delay a bill without ever getting to a vote. The filibuster wasn’t used regularly until the mid-1800s when Southern senators employed the tactic to block debate over abolishing slavery. In order to support the American war effort in World War I, the Senate in 1917 passed the cloture rule which made it possible to end a filibuster with a two-thirds majority. Because a two-thirds majority proved difficult to obtain, the Senate in 1975 reduced this requirement to 60 votes. While a final vote to pass legislation in the Senate requires a simple majority of 51 votes, a supermajority of 60 votes is needed to start or end debate on the bill. Consequently 60 votes has become the minimum needed for most bills to advance to a vote. In a highly partisan, polarized Senate with a 50-50 split between parties, obtaining 60 votes to end a filibuster is often impossible. (1, 3, 16) 

 What’s the difference between “talking” vs.“silent” filibusters? Originally, filibusters involved long speeches in which a senator attempted to block a vote from proceeding by refusing to yield the floor. The longest filibuster ever recorded was by South Carolina Senator Strom Thurmond, whose speech opposing the Civil Rights Act of 1957 lasted for over 24 hours. Since the early 1970s, however, senators have been able to use a “silent” filibuster. Any time a group of 41 or more senators threatens a filibuster, the Senate majority leader, knowing the legislation lacks sufficient support, can refuse to call a vote and instead moves on to other matters. Use of the filibuster escalated dramatically with the availability of the silent filibuster. Of the more than 2000 filibusters in the last century, over half have occurred in the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations. (3) 

 Are there exceptions to the filibuster rule? Yes, in 2012 Democrats changed Senate rules to enable confirmation of executive branch positions (e.g., Obama’s cabinet) and non-Supreme Court judicial nominees by a simple majority vote. In 2017 Senate Republicans expanded this change to include Supreme Court appointments, enabling President Trump to fill three Supreme Court vacancies over the course of his term. Both changes involve what is known as the “nuclear option”, i.e., changing a Senate rule to pass legislation with a simple majority and overcome obstruction by the minority. (“Nuclear” because both parties saw it as an unthinkable final recourse, much like nuclear war.) “Budget reconciliation” is one such way to get around the filibuster. That is, a bill may be passed with a simple majority if all of its provisions relate to the federal budget. This process was used to pass the Democrats’ $1 trillion spending package to help people struggling during the pandemic (the American Rescue Plan). In addition, the Senate has also exempted certain other types of legislation from the 60-vote requirement, e.g,, certain trade agreements, military base closures, arms sales. (2, 9, 10) 

 What are pros and cons of the filibuster? Pros include the argument that the filibuster makes the Senate more deliberative and prevents hasty legislation from being pushed through without adequate debate. It’s also argued that the filibuster encourages bipartisan compromise, forcing the majority to negotiate a version more acceptable to the minority, thus protecting rights of the minority party. Without the filibuster, the majority party would be able to pass anything for which it could get a simple majority. The major con is that the filibuster has made accomplishing anything in Congress extremely difficult. In effect, it’s argued that the filibuster gives the Senate minority too much power. Additionally use of the filibuster prevents other critical issues from being addressed. In the current congress Republicans have used the filibuster to successfully block legislation on police reform, immigration reform, voting rights, and a host of other measures. Finally, no other part of the government requires a super-majority to pass a law. (7, 15) 

 What are options to reform the filibuster? Six options are evident. First, eliminate the filibuster altogether. (However, ending debate on changing the Senate’s standing rules requires a two-thirds majority, making this change extremely unlikely.) Second, use the nuclear option in which the Senate majority leader would use a nondebatable motion to bring a bill to a simple majority vote. Third, go back to the talking filibuster and require that objectors to a bill be present with one of them speaking at all times. Fourth, shift the burden onto the filibustering Senators to muster the required number of 41 votes to maintain the filibuster (instead of requiring votes from 60 who wish to proceed). Fifth, get rid of the 60-vote hurdle to start debate on a bill but keep it in place for ending debate. Sixth, do not eliminate the procedure altogether, but make an exemption for voting rights legislation and other pro-democracy measures (similar to the existing procedure for budget reconciliation). (3, 5, 14) 

 What is likely to happen with the filibuster? The future is uncertain. Many Democrats see the 60-vote rule as a stranglehold on their agenda, and the pressure to pass at least some party priorities is pushing Democratic leaders to call for filibuster changes. Last week the Democrats brought to the floor a proposal to change Senate rules to force GOP senators to use a talking filibuster in their opposition to voting rights legislation. However Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) opposed the proposed rule change, resulting in its defeat. Nonetheless, there is near-unanimous support for filibuster reform among Democrats, and if they are able to hold the House and add a few Senate seats in 2022, experts suggest that change is likely in the near future. In 2022 the late Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid predicted: “The filibuster is on its way out, It’s not a question of if but when. It may not be tomorrow or six months from now, but the filibuster is doomed for failure. You can’t have a democracy that requires 60 percent of the vote on everything.”  (6, 7, 13) 

 SOURCES: (1) abcnews.go.com, “What is the Senate filibuster?; (2) ballotopedia.org, “Filibuster and reconciliation in the United States Congress”; (3) brennancenter.org, “The Filibuster, Explained”; (4) britannicacom, “filibuster: parliamentary tactic”; (5) brookings.edu, “Filibuster reform is coming — here’s how”; (6) brookings.edu, “What is the senate filibuster, and what would it take to eliminate it?”; (7) cnn.com, “Why Democrats want to change the Senate’s filibuster rules”; (8) filibusterreform.com, “What is a Filibuster and Why Reform is Good”; (9) nbcnews.com, “The Nuclear Option: What It Is and Why It Matters”; (10) nor.org, “Senate Democrats plan a vote to change the filibuster. So what is it?”; (11) senate.gov, “About Filibusters and Cloture: Historical Overview”; (12) theblaze.com, “2 pros and 3 cons of ending the filibuster”; (13) thehill.com, “Democrats say change to filibuster just a matter of time”; (14) thehill.com, “Manchin: ‘Heavy lift’ to change the filibuster through nuclear option”; (15) thinkehevote.com, “Should the Senate Reform the Filibuster?”; (16) usatoday.com, “What is the filibuster?”

The Biggest Day

DEAR GEORGE: Around noon today we watched Joe Biden take the oath of office and deliver a stirring inauguration speech. Then an hour later we drove over to the UC Med Center and got our first Moderna vaccinations. Two life-changing events in the course of an hour. I can’t remember such a time in my life. Watching the inauguration I felt my whole body suddenly relax, and I realized I’ve probably been in a constant state of muscle tension for the last four years. My main aim has been to live long enough to see the end of the Trump presidency, and I can’t express how satisfying that was (though I know that many have the exact same feeling). I realize that the damage that Trump caused will last for years and even decades, but there’s that reassuring sense that the country’s course as been righted, at least to the extent that that’s possible. I also think it’s remarkable that we got our anti-Covid vaccine on the same day as the inauguration. That’s also a great relief and a concrete sign of hope for the future. Frankly, I was amazed that it came as quickly as it did. For me it means a return to the fitness center and my aerobic exercise classes by early March and many more public events that I’ve been missing by the autumn. Like Trump, the country’s recovery from the pandemic will likely take years, but the growing availability of the vaccine is an occasion for optimism and rejoicing. I think we’ll just sit back and enjoy this happy time. LOVE, DAVE

The Longest Week Ever

 Tuesday, Nov. 3

Glued to the tube on election eve

Trump’s winning more states than we thought 

The night wears on, we begin to grieve 

Glued to the tube on election eve

I worry the pundits have been naive

And our dreams will have gone for nought 

Glued to the tube on election eve

Trump’s winning more states than we thought 

Thursday, Nov. 5

They’ve been counting the ballots for days 

And the battleground states are still close

Trump in the Heartland is still a craze

They’ve been counting the ballots for days

I watch with a growing sense of malaise 

Ohio, Kentucky, so gross 

They’ve been counting the ballots for days

And the battleground states are still close 

Saturday, Nov. 7 

CNN has declared, “Joe Biden has won” 

It’s true but it’s hard to believe 

Trump is now working to get it undone 

CNN has declared, “Joe Biden has won” 

A moment of joy but not yet much fun   

The Prez has tricks up his sleeve 

CNN has declared, “Joe Biden has won” 

It’s true but it’s hard to believe 

The Battleground Picture

Dear George,

Fifteen days to go.  That’s so hard to believe.  Joe Biden has a sizable lead in the national polls, but, as you know, that doesn’t mean much.  Because the election will be decided in the Electoral College, it’s really the outcomes in the battleground states with their close races that matter.  The table below, taken today from the sources listed at the end, show state-by-state 2016 Clinton-Trump election results and 2020 recent polling results for Biden and Trump.  They are ordered by the margin of difference in the 2020 polls.  The 2016 state election winner and the 2020 polling leader are highlighted in bold print.     

Michigan (2016)          Michigan (2020) 

Clinton      47.3%       Biden         50.2%

Trump        47.6%       Trump         42.6%

Difference   -0.3%       Difference    +7.6%

Wisconsin (2016)         Wisconsin (2020) 

Clinton      46.9%       Biden         50.6%

Trump        47.9%       Trump         43.5%

Difference   -0.8%       Difference    +7.1%

Pennsylvania (2016)      Pennsylvania (2020)

Clinton      47.6%       Biden         50.3%

Trump        48.8%       Trump         44.2%

Difference   -1.2%       Difference    +6.1%

North Carolina (2016     North Carolina (2020) 

Clinton      46.7%       Biden         49.3%

Trump        50.5%       Trump         45.6%

Difference   -3.8%       Difference    +3.7%

Arizona (2016)           Arizona (2020) 

Clinton      45.4%       Biden         48.4%

Trump        49.5%       Trump         44.8%

Difference   -4.1%       Difference    +3.6%

Florida (2016)           Florida (2020) 

Clinton      47.8%       Biden         49.0%

Trump        49.1%       Trump         46.7%

Difference   -1.3%       Difference    +2.3%

Georgia (2016)           Georgia (2020) 

Clinton      45.6%       Biden         47.8%

Trump        51.3%       Trump         46.6%

Difference   -5.7%       Difference    +1.2%  

Iowa (2016)              Iowa (2020) 

Clinton      42.2%       Biden         47.3%

Trump        51.8%       Trump         48.5%

Difference   -9.6%       Difference    -1.2%

Ohio (2016)              Ohio (2020) 

Clinton      43.5%       Biden         46.1%

Trump        52.1%       Trump         47.8%

Difference   -8.6%       Difference    -1.7%

Texas (2016)             Texas (2020) 

Clinton      43.4%       Biden         49.2%

Trump        52.6%       Trump         44.8%

Difference   -9.2%       Difference    -4.4% 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

National (2016)          National (2020) 

Clinton      48.2%       Biden         52.4%

Trump        46.1%       Trump         41.6%

Difference   +2.1%       Difference   +10.8%

As is shown in the table, Trump won in 10 of the 10 battleground states in 2016, although he had less of the popular vote nationally than did Clinton. Recent battleground state polls indicate that voters have moved toward the Democratic candidate in all of these states.  Biden leads in 7 of the 10 states, decisively in several cases.   

These results, of course, provide a very positive picture for Biden and supporters.  If the current poll results hold up on Nov. 3, Biden will be the winner by a large margin.  On the other hand, many commentators point out that Hillary Clinton led decisively in the pools throughout the entire 2016 election campaign, yet lost in the electoral college.  Trump supporters were apparently under-counted during the 2016 campaign, and current polls may be over-counting support for Biden.

I was positive that the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers would crush the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tom Brady last Sunday.  The Packers, to our sorrow, lost 38-10.  I’m not making any predictions about anything else.

Love,

Dave  

SOURCES: 

270towin.com, “2020  Presidential Election Polls”; accessed Oct. 19, 2020;  

cbsnews.com, “Battleground Tracker,” Oct. 18, 2020; 

politico.com, “2016 Presidential Election”, Dec. 13, 2016; 

realclearpolitics.com, “Key 2020 Races”, Oct. 19, 2020; 

the guardian.com, “US election polls tracker,” Oct. 19, 2020; 

Will This Actually Happen?

Dear George,

We have “sheltered in place” for four months, and that arrangement appears likely to continue indefinitely.  Our lives, while less damaged than most, remain pretty bleak.  No outings, no social gatherings, no events, no sports, no music, no art, no restaurants, not much except TV and red wine.  Recently, however, it’s been dawning on me that something stupendous and wonderful is likely to happen in the foreseeable future.  I’m referring, of course, to the November elections.  Every day more evidence becomes available that Trump has little or no possibility of being re-elected.  In my mind, the inauguration of a new president in six months.  I’m sure you’ve see the news reports.  Here is a sampling:    

87% of Americans are dissatisfied with how things are going in the country, and only 17% are proud of the country’s condition.  (late June Pew survey; brookings.edu) 

As of the end of June, only 39% approve of how Trump is handling his job as president.  (Pew survey; brookings.edu)

Younger white working class voters (ages 18-39), a major Trump constituency, tend to view Trump’s presidency as “poor” or “terrible” (46%) and are unlikely to think that he handles race relations well (35%) or brings the country together (35%).  (Pew survey; brookings.edu) 

Trump has received severe criticism for mishandling the pandemic crisis and for his responses to protests over the death of George Floyd.  (theguardian.com)

According to CNN analysts, “the toll the coronavirus will have taken on the American economy and people will be too great for him to overcome.”  (cnn.com) 

Though seniors (65 and over) favored Trump by 8 points in 2016, most surveys in June 2020 found Biden leading Trump by 2 to 8 points among seniors.  (nbcnews.com) 

A recent NY Times poll found Biden leading white women with college degrees by 39 points (compared to Hillary Clinton’s 7 point margin in 2016).  (slate.com)

In 2016 Trump won white women without college degrees by 37%.  Recent polls have found that number shrinking to single digits.  (slate.com) 

According to a June 2020 NYT poll, Biden is leading by 6 to 11 points in six battleground states that Trump carried in 2016 and that were crucial to his election: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina.  (nytimes.com)  

A late June Pew Center survey found Biden leading Trump nationally by 10 points, 54%-44%.  (brookingsedu)

It sounds almost too good to be true, and I’m immediately reminded how we celebrated Hillary Clinton’s “landslide victory” up until the polls closed on election day.  Momentous things could happen in coming months with the pandemic, the economy, race relations.  And/or Joe Biden could mess up.  Right now, however, there’s lots of reasons for anti-Trumpers to feel optimistic.  I’m determined not to die from the coronavirus while Trump is in office.  I plan to avoid all germs until 2021.  (But in the worst circumstance, if need be, I’ll hide out at home till 2025).

Love,

Dave

Skipping the Fourth

Dear George,

Thanks to the coronavirus, this may be the most un-Fourth of July since 1776.  No fireworks extravaganza on the riverfront, no band concerts or parades or community-wide picnics.  You don’t even see that many flags.  Just a lot of firecrackers that have been going off late at night for the past two weeks and terrifying neighborhood dogs.  It’s just as well.  Between Trump, the country’s failure to control the pandemic, George Floyd, the uproar over monuments to white supremacy, and economic collapse, it’s hard to dredge up any feeling of patriotism.  Here is my optimistic, if somewhat delusional thought.  Six months from now we’ll be inaugurating a new president, they’ll be distributing a vaccine to hundreds of millions, police reforms will be in place in many U.S. cities, racist monuments removed, and an increasingly successful reopening of business and industry worldwide.  Probably too much to hope for, but some of it could actually happen.

This is pretty much a lost year so far since virtually everything pleasurable has been put on hold.  On top of it all, I woke up on June first with every muscle in my body aching.  Thinking it due to the statin I take for high cholesterol, I emailed my doctor’s office and asked if I could stop the statin.  During these perilous times it’s difficult to see or talk to a doctor, so the nurse-practitioner said by return email it was o.k. though she thought it more likely to be arthritis.  My son and daughter-in-law, the two doctors in our family, tentatively diagnosed my condition as Polymyalgia Rheumatica, a mysterious but not uncommon ailment apparently linked to being older than one should be.  I relayed this to the nurse-practitioner, and she started me on a low dose of steroids (prednisone).  That helped quite a bit for the first two days, then seemed to reach a plateau.  The pain is tolerable, gets better in the course of the day, and I’m patiently waiting for it to go away altogether during my three-month steroid treatment.  

The other painful thing is that my close friend Jennifer and her partner Brian moved this week from Cincinnati to Virginia where she’s taken a high level position in the state university system.  Jennifer came here twenty years ago, and, because she lived right down the street, we walked home from work together practically every day.  That’s a lot of walks and talks, maybe 3 or 4 thousand.  This is the second time in a couple of years that one of my closest friends has moved away, and these are losses that are pretty much impossible to overcome. 

A bright spot is that our son J and grandkids V and L will be coming to visit in about a week, and they’ll stay with us for two weeks, the longest get-together we’ve ever had.  I think it’s a great opportunity.  I worried that with so many things shut down it will be hard to keep the kids entertained, but J reassured me that they are very content to spend the whole day playing video games.  I myself have never played a video game, so I’m going to ask them to give me some lessons.  At the end of their stay they’ll drive back to New Orleans, taking one or both of their dogs with them.  J asked if we might want to keep Iko in Cincinnati.  Katja’s been wishing for that for some time, but then she changed her mind, thinking back to a childhood trauma when her veterinarian dad said she couldn’t keep the new puppy he gave her because its original family wanted it back.  Dog arrangements will work out one way or the other.   This three and a half month visit from Iko and Lil Paws has been a great treat and has reminded us how much we are dog people.  

Katja sent me off to Clifton Market yesterday with a grocery list that included some challenging items, e.g., unsweetened cocoanut, cider vinegar, two avocados.  A staff person stocking shelves found the cocoanut for me, and I actually found the vinegar myself, though I had to call home to see if apple cider vinegar was correct.  Another staff person pointed to the end of the aisle where the avocados were, but unfortunately the labels were missing from the various fruit and vegetable boxes.  I picked up two dark green lumpy items shaped like small footballs and took them back to the staffer, asking her if these were avocados.  She looked at me strangely and nodded yes.  Then she asked if I would like her help in picking out which avocados would be best to choose.  I declined but sincerely thanked her for her offer.    

So we are muddling along.  Cincinnati is one of the worst places in Ohio for spread of the virus right now, so we’re trying to be as careful as possible.  Take care, wash frequently. 

Love,

Dave     

Impeachment: What's the Story?

Dear George, 

Whispers of impeachment are flitting in the wind.  This is one of those currently significant topics that I decided I should know more about.  Thanks to the internet, that’s easy to do.  Here are my questions and its answers.

Love,

Dave

What exactly is “impeachment”?

Impeachment is defined as “the formal process of bringing charges against a high-ranking government official, in a bid to remove him or her from office.” (7) [note: #’s in parentheses refer to sources at end.]  Impeachment does not refer to removal from office, but rather to bringing charges which may or may not subsequently result in removal.  In the U.S., the President, Vice President, judges, legislators, cabinet members, governors, and all other federal and state civil officials may be subjected to impeachment.  (7, 10) 

What are the grounds for impeachment?

The Constitution lists “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors” as justification for impeachment.  The wording of “high crimes and misdemeanors” is quite vague.  Many question, for example, whether Bill Clinton’s lies about Monica Lewinsky were a “low” crime or a “high” crime. (1)

How is the presidential impeachment process carried out?

Impeachment and subsequent removal from office are a two-step process.  The impeachment process begins in the U.S. House of Representatives.  Any member of the House can suggest initiating impeachment proceedings.  It’s then up to the Speaker of the House (currently Nancy Pelosi) to determine whether or not to proceed with an impeachment inquiry.  If there is a decision to proceed, the Speaker decides if the House Judiciary Committee handles the impeachment inquiry or if a separate special committee should be formed.  In either case, a simple majority committee vote in favor of approving an article or articles of impeachment is sufficient to proceed to a vote by the full House.  A majority vote (i.e., at least 218 out of 435 members) means that that House has impeached the president. (1)

Has the House begun impeachment hearings?

                The House leadership agreed in July 2019 to begin impeachment proceedings without a formal vote.  Judiciary Committee chair Jerrold Nadler stated on both CNN MSNBC that such proceedings had begun and that an impeachment hearing would begin in September.   He reiterated on Sept. 9 that his committee’s actions are an “impeachment inquiry,” but he did not refer to it as formal.  (4, 21) 

What is the Senate’s role?

If the House impeaches the president (or other federal official), the Senate then conducts the impeachment trial.  The chief justice of the Supreme Court presides over the trial.  While a simple majority is needed in the House, a two-thirds majority (67 of 100 members) in favor of conviction is needed in the Senate.   If the Senate votes to convict, the president is removed from office.  If the Senate fails to convict, the president will have been impeached but not removed.  (1, 15) 

What punishments are associated with conviction?

Removal from office is the sole punishment in presidential impeachment.  However, a president can face later criminal charges, subject to indictment, trial, judgment, and punishment.  (1)

How common is impeachment?

Impeachment is rare at the federal level.  The House of Representatives has initiated impeachment proceedings only 64 times since 1789.  The House voted to pass articles of impeachment in only 19 cases, and only 8 of these resulted in removal from office (all federal judges). (22)

How many U.S. presidents have been impeached?

Only two.  Andrew Johnson was impeached in 1868 by the House and was one vote shy of being convicted by the Senate.  The charges had to do with his firing of his secretary of war (violating a tenure act that required congressional authorization).  Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998 for perjury and obstruction of justice due to his cover-up of his affair with Monica Lewinsky, but the Senate was 22 votes away from conviction.  No U.S. president has ever been removed from office by an impeachment (although Richard Nixon resigned before the House voted). (6) 

Besides Johnson and Clinton, what other U.S. presidents have faced the possibility of impeachment proceedings?

There have been calls for impeachment of most U.S. presidents.  In addition to Johnson and Clinton, eleven other presidents have had resolutions introduced in the House to initiate impeachment proceedings.  These were: John Tyler (1842; for vetoing a tariff (bill without congressional authorization); James Buchanan (1860; for corruption); Ulysses S. Grant (1876; for corruption and various scandals); Herbert Hoover (1932; for 26 offenses); Harry S. Truman (1951; for abuse of power in firing General Douglas MacArthur); Richard M. Nixon (1973; for obstruction of justice, abuse of power, and contempt of Congress in connection with the Watergate coverup); Ronald Reagan (1987; for his alleged role in the Iran-Contra affair); George H.W. Bush (1991;  for starting the Gulf War); George W. Bush (2008; for starting the war in Iraq based on false information);  Barack Obama (2012; for the CIA drone program in Afghanistan and Pakistan); and Donald Trump (2017; foreign emoluments, collusion with Russia, obstruction of justice, and “associating the Presidency with White Nationalism, Neo-Nazism and Hatred”). (6, 21, 24) 

Can the Supreme Court reverse a Senate decision to remove a president?

Trump has said that he would turn to the Supreme Court for help if he were impeached.  However, the Senate’s decision is final, and there is no appeals process. (14, 23) 

Can a president be removed from office any way other than impeachment?

The 25th amendment empowers the vice president to take over as acting president in the case of the “inability (of the president) to discharge the powers and duties of his office.”  It’s not clear who decides this, and the 25th amendment is mainly applied when the president is temporarily incapacitated, e.g., during surgery. (11)  Various sources have suggested that high-level officials in the Trump administration have discussed the possibility of the 25th amendment being invoked against Trump.  (18) 

What are reasons to impeach President Trump?

The Washington Post recently concluded that there are ample grounds for Trump’s impeachment.  They list seven potential articles: (1) obstruction of justice (e.g., attempting to fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller); (1) failure to defend America from foreign election interference (e.g, welcoming Russian intervention in the 2016 election); (3) attempts to investigate and prosecute his political opponents (e.g., asking the Justice Department to investigate Hillary Clinton); (4) failure to produce papers and testimony as directed by Congress (e.g., tax returns); (5) violation of federal campaign finance laws (e.g., payments to porn star Stormy Daniels); (6) misuse of emergency powers to spend funds on a Mexican border wall;  (7) violation of the emoluments clauses (e.g., benefiting from business dealings with foreign and state governments).  The Post concluded: “Trump has committed more criminal and unconstitutional conduct than any previous president in U.S. history.”  (20)

Who would be president if Trump were removed from office?

Vice President Mike Pence would fill out the remainder of Trump’s term until Jan. 20, 2021.  If Pence were also impeached, the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, would become president. (11)

 What Democratic presidential candidates have expressed support for impeachment proceedings?

As of August 1, 2019, thirteen Democratic presidential candidates (including 4 former candidates) had publicly come out in favor of beginning an impeachment inquiry against Trump:  Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Corey Booker, Joe Biden, John Hickenlooper, Kirsten Gillibrand, Julian Castro, Beto O’Rourke, Tim Ryan, Seth Moulton, Eric Swalwell, Amy Klobuchar, and Jay Inslee.  In addition, 137 of 235 House Democrats support an impeachment inquiry. (3, 5, 12, 17) 

How many Republican House members have supported an impeachment inquiry?

                One current Representative, Justin Amash of Michigan, called for impeachment in May 2019 on the grounds of obstruction of justice.  He has since left the Republican party and declared himself an Independent.  (21) 

What does Fox News have to say about impeachment?

According to Sean Hannity, there is no justification at all for Trump’s impeachment.  Hannity claims the Democrats’ efforts are based on “three years of lies.”  The left-wing Democratic majority is disinterested in passing legislation that will help the country.  Their sole focus:  “Destroying Donald Trump and everybody that supports him.”  (9)  

What has been the Speaker of the House’s stance?

                Nancy Pelosi initially resisted calls for impeachment, although in May 2019 she said that Trump’s obstruction of justice and refusal to honor congressional subpoenas might make an impeachment investigation necessary. (21)  Recently (Sept. 12) she said: “I support what is happening in the Judiciary Committee (regarding their impeachment inquiry), because that enables them to do their process of interrogation and investigation.”  (13) 

What do public opinion polls say?

                Recent polls show divided opinions.  A NBC/WSJ poll in March 2019 found that 17% viewed evidence as sufficient to begin impeachment hearings, 32% favored continued investigation, and 48% opposed impeachment.  A Reuters/Ipsos poll in March found that 45% favored impeachment and 42% opposed impeachment.  Fox News released a poll in June 2019 showing 50% of registered voters supporting impeachment, with 48% in opposition. (21)

A Hill-HarrisX poll conducted shortly after Robert Mueller testified before Congress in late July found support for beginning impeachment proceedings by 67% of Democrats, 17% of Republicans, and 34% of Independents.  (11a) 

Why do some Democrats prefer not to pursue impeachment? 

Most Democratic congresspersons from red-leaning districts that voted for Trump over Clinton have not endorsed impeachment, saying that their constituents are interested in other issues.  Some Democrats believe that trying to remove Trump from the presidency would be too divisive and could trigger a dangerous backlash among his supporters.  Removing Trump via the ballot box in 2020 is seen by many as a more feasible option.    There is virtually no possibility that Trump’s impeachment by the House (if it did occur) would result in his removal from office by the Republican-majority Senate.  (16)   

  

What does Donald Trump say about his potential impeachment?

                In Jan. 2019 Trump tweeted: “How do you impeach a president who has won perhaps the greatest election of all time, done nothing wrong (no Collusion with Russia, it was the Dems that Colluded), had the most successful first two years of any president, and is the most popular Republican in party history 93%.”  On Dec. 11 Trump told Reuters: “I’m not concerned, no.  I think that the people would revolt if that happened.”  Various commentators have suggested that Trump actually wants to be impeached in order to boost attention and increase his electoral advantage. (1, 21).

END-NOTE (this author’s opinion):  I think there are many credible arguments that Donald Trump is unqualified and is unfit for the office of president.  On the other hand, many of the charges — e.g., ignorance, lying and distortion, self-delusion, arrogance, terrible appointments, faulty policies, climate change-denial, even sexism and White Nationalism — don’t fall under rubrics like treason or high crimes and misdemeanors.  To the best of my knowledge, no prominent figures from the political left or the right have suggested that impeachment will succeed in removing Trump from office.  Continued investigation seems essential, but, voting Trump out in the 2020 election looks like the most workable option to me.  

SOURCES:

(1) abcnews.go.com, Meghan Keneally, “How the impeachment process works,” Jan. 29, 2019;

(2) bbc.com, Anthony Zurcher, “Donald Trump impeachment debate”, June 8, 2109;

(3) businessinsider.com, Grace Panetta, “Democrats who want to begin an impeachment inquiry against Trump,” Aug. 1, 2019; 

(4) cbsnews.com, Grace Segers, “House Democratic leaders divided on how to describe impeachment inquiry,” Sept. 11, 2019; 

(5) fortune.com, Erin Corbett, “To Impeach Trump or Not,” July 30, 2019; 

(6) historyextra.com, “A brief history of presidential impeachment,” July 15, 2019;

(7) investopedia.com, Will Kenton, “Impeachment”, May 9, 2018;

(8) theglobepost.com, Alex Graf, “Trump’s Criminality is Blatantly Clear.  The Time to Impeach is Now,” July 2, 2019; 

(9) hannity.com, Hannity staff, “Hannity: Democrats Still Pushing Impeachment After ‘Three Years of Lies’”, Sept. 10, 2019; 

(10) litigation.findlaw.com, “Who Can be Impeached?”, n.d.;

(11) newsweek.com, Asher Stockton, “GOP Support for Impeachment Nearly Doubles”, Aug. 2, 2019; 

(11a) newsweek.com, Eve Watling, “How Can a President Be Removed From Office,” Feb. 5, 2019; 

(12) oregonlive.com, Douglas Perry, “Donald Trump’s impeachment will happen this fall, key House Democrat says”, Sept. 4, 2019;

(13) Jake Sherman et al., “PLIITICO Playbook PM: Pelosi rebuffs impeachment questions,” Sept. 12, 2019; 

(14) politico.com, Katie Galioto, “Trump says he’ll turn to Supreme Court if Congress begins impeachment”, Apr. 24, 219; 

(15) reuters.com, Jan Wolfe, Richard Cowan, “Explainer - What does it take to remove a U.S. president from office?”, Apr. 26, 2019; 

(16)  slate.com, Ben Mathis-Lilley, “Impeach-O-Meer” After Impeachment August, It’s Judiciary Procedure”, Sept. 11, 2019; 

(17) theguardian.com, Lauren Gam(3no, “2020 Democrats renew calls for impeachment,” July 24, 2019; 

(18) usatoday.com, Maureen Groppe, “What to know about the 25th Amendment”, Feb. 14, 2019; 

(19) washingtonpost.com, David A. Fahrenthold, “Five things to know about impeachment,” Apr. 20, 2019; 

(20) washingtonpost.com, Max Boot, “Here are seven reasons Trump should be impeached,” June 3, 2019. 

(21) wikipedia.org, “Efforts to impeach Donald Trump”, n.d.

(22) wikipedia.org, “Impeachment”, n.d.;

(23) wikipedia.org, “Impeachment in the United States”, n.d.;

(24) wikipedia.org, “Impeachment investigations of United States federal officials”, n.d.;