Dear George,
Fifteen days to go. That’s so hard to believe. Joe Biden has a sizable lead in the national polls, but, as you know, that doesn’t mean much. Because the election will be decided in the Electoral College, it’s really the outcomes in the battleground states with their close races that matter. The table below, taken today from the sources listed at the end, show state-by-state 2016 Clinton-Trump election results and 2020 recent polling results for Biden and Trump. They are ordered by the margin of difference in the 2020 polls. The 2016 state election winner and the 2020 polling leader are highlighted in bold print.
Michigan (2016) Michigan (2020)
Clinton 47.3% Biden 50.2%
Trump 47.6% Trump 42.6%
Difference -0.3% Difference +7.6%
Wisconsin (2016) Wisconsin (2020)
Clinton 46.9% Biden 50.6%
Trump 47.9% Trump 43.5%
Difference -0.8% Difference +7.1%
Pennsylvania (2016) Pennsylvania (2020)
Clinton 47.6% Biden 50.3%
Trump 48.8% Trump 44.2%
Difference -1.2% Difference +6.1%
North Carolina (2016 North Carolina (2020)
Clinton 46.7% Biden 49.3%
Trump 50.5% Trump 45.6%
Difference -3.8% Difference +3.7%
Arizona (2016) Arizona (2020)
Clinton 45.4% Biden 48.4%
Trump 49.5% Trump 44.8%
Difference -4.1% Difference +3.6%
Florida (2016) Florida (2020)
Clinton 47.8% Biden 49.0%
Trump 49.1% Trump 46.7%
Difference -1.3% Difference +2.3%
Georgia (2016) Georgia (2020)
Clinton 45.6% Biden 47.8%
Trump 51.3% Trump 46.6%
Difference -5.7% Difference +1.2%
Iowa (2016) Iowa (2020)
Clinton 42.2% Biden 47.3%
Trump 51.8% Trump 48.5%
Difference -9.6% Difference -1.2%
Ohio (2016) Ohio (2020)
Clinton 43.5% Biden 46.1%
Trump 52.1% Trump 47.8%
Difference -8.6% Difference -1.7%
Texas (2016) Texas (2020)
Clinton 43.4% Biden 49.2%
Trump 52.6% Trump 44.8%
Difference -9.2% Difference -4.4%
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
National (2016) National (2020)
Clinton 48.2% Biden 52.4%
Trump 46.1% Trump 41.6%
Difference +2.1% Difference +10.8%
As is shown in the table, Trump won in 10 of the 10 battleground states in 2016, although he had less of the popular vote nationally than did Clinton. Recent battleground state polls indicate that voters have moved toward the Democratic candidate in all of these states. Biden leads in 7 of the 10 states, decisively in several cases.
These results, of course, provide a very positive picture for Biden and supporters. If the current poll results hold up on Nov. 3, Biden will be the winner by a large margin. On the other hand, many commentators point out that Hillary Clinton led decisively in the pools throughout the entire 2016 election campaign, yet lost in the electoral college. Trump supporters were apparently under-counted during the 2016 campaign, and current polls may be over-counting support for Biden.
I was positive that the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers would crush the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tom Brady last Sunday. The Packers, to our sorrow, lost 38-10. I’m not making any predictions about anything else.
Love,
Dave
SOURCES:
270towin.com, “2020 Presidential Election Polls”; accessed Oct. 19, 2020;
cbsnews.com, “Battleground Tracker,” Oct. 18, 2020;
politico.com, “2016 Presidential Election”, Dec. 13, 2016;
realclearpolitics.com, “Key 2020 Races”, Oct. 19, 2020;
the guardian.com, “US election polls tracker,” Oct. 19, 2020;
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