This is a big year in Ohio politics. In particular, the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Tim Ryan and Republican J. D. Vance will be one of the critical contests determining whether Democrats retain control of the Senate. In addition, the governorship race pits Republican incumbent Mike DeWine against Dayton mayor Nan Whaley, and there are numerous U.S. House seats up for grabs. I’ve spent some time trying to get a firmer grasp on the current Ohio political scene. Here’s what I’ve learned (numbers in parentheses refer to sources at the end).
Ohio has long been regarded a swing state, narrowly voting for winning presidential candidates in 14 consecutive elections from 1964 to 2016 (6 Democrat winners, 6 Republicans). However, Trump carried Ohio by comfortable 8-point margins in both 2016 and 2020 despite losing nationally by 2 points in 2016 and by 4 points in 2020. The Republican Party currently controls the Governor’s office, the Ohio House, and the Ohio Senate. All non-judicial state elected officials have been Republicans since 2010, as are currently 12 of 16 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and one of two U.S. Senators. Senator Sherrod Brown is the sole statewide Democratic winner. Most experts suggest that Ohio has migrated from being a battleground state to being a Republican-leaning state. (3, 10, 11, 13)
A recent Gallup poll asked residents of all 50 states to indicate whether their political views were liberal, moderate, or conservative. In 44 of 50 states residents were more likely to identify as conservative than as liberal. Ohio was the 25th most conservative state, slightly less conservative than the national average. 37% of Ohio respondents identified themselves as conservative; 35% as moderate; and 22% as liberal. (7) As of Oct. 1, 2021, party registration of nearly 8 million voters in Ohio was: Democratic (947,027, 11.8%); Republican (836.080, 10.4%), and Unaffiliated (6,196,547, 77.6%). (16)
Demographically, Ohio political patterns are similar to other Midwestern states. According to the Pew Research Center, Whites in Ohio are more likely to identify as Republicans, especially white men without college educations. Latinos, Asians, and especially African-Americans identify more often as Democrats. Gender differences are sizable. 46% of Ohio Republicans are women, 51% of Independents are women, and 59% of Democrats are women. 44% of Ohio Republicans have household incomes of $50,000 or more, compared to 34% of Democrats. Educational levels are quite similar. 26% of Republicans have college or post-graduate degrees compared to 25% of Democrats. (11)
Like other Midwestern states, Ohio has a strong urban/rural political divide. Over the last twenty years urban areas in Ohio have become more reliably Democratic, while rural areas have become more reliably Republican. (7) In 2020 Biden won by 510,000 votes in Ohio urban counties, but lost by 615,000 votes in rural counties and by 373,000 votes in suburban counties. (7) Biden carried just 7 of Ohio’s 88 counties in 2020 (those containing Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Akron, Toledo, Dayton, and the university town of Athens). All 81 countries with smaller demographics went for Trump. Biden won decisively in Hamilton County (Cincinnati, 57.2%), but lost by still larger margins in neighboring Butler County (37.3% for Biden), Warren County (33.9%), and Clermont County (30.9%). (13) Ohio’s three largest urban counties (where Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati are located) represent only 44% of the state’s population. Consequently Democrats have to increase votes from rural and suburban voters in order to win in statewide elections. (7)
The religious right has enthusiastically endorsed the Republic party and vice versa. A Pew Research Center survey on party affiliation and religion among Ohio adults found marked differences. Majorities of Catholics, Evangelical Protestants, and Mainline Protestants were more likely to identify as Republicans than as Democrats. Unaffiliated respondents (no religious preference) were more likely to identify as Democrats (53% vs. 23%). Compared to Democrats, Republicans were more likely to be absolutely certain of their belief in God, regard religion as very important to their life, attend religious services at least once a week, pray daily, and look to religion most often for guidance on right and wrong. (11)
The congressional map in Ohio is gerrymandered in favor of Republicans. Though Republican candidates generally receive no more than 55% of the statewide popular vote, they make up 65% of Ohio House members (64-35) and 76% of Ohio state senators (25-8). In 2018 Ohio voters passed a constitutional amendment to reform redistricting in the state and make it harder to gerrymander. However, efforts to put the new law into effect have been a disaster, and the most recent congressional map approved by the Republican legislature and governor is as gerrymandered as ever. The current map gives Republicans 75-80% of Ohio’s congressional seats. Because only Republicans voted for it, this map will only be valid for two election cycles, with Ohio going through another redistricting process in 2025-26. (6) Of local interest, Republican U.S. representative Steve Chabot is now running in a newly drawn district in the Cincinnati area that Biden would have carried by 9 points in 2020 and faces a tough re-election campaign against Cincinnati city councilman Greg Landsmann. (14)
The polices and agenda of the Ohio Republican and Democratic parties are similar to their national counterparts. The Ohio GOP website states that “Ohio Republicans are working hard to enact policies that grow our economy, shrink government and protect our freedoms. (9) Ohio Democratic party principles include an efficient yet understanding government, fair and equal representation, strengthening families and protecting children, affordable housing, condemnation of discrimination, top priority to health and safety, protection from violence and crime, respect for elders, and pursuing these ideals with honest and integrity. (8) The Republican-dominated state legislature has recently passed or is currently proceeding with bills to allow teachers to carry guns in the classroom, reduce the amount of training needed for gun-carrying teachers, remove a requirement that concealed carry permit holder notify law enforcement that they are armed when stopped, ban transgender girls from girls’ sports, prohibit green-card-holding immigrants from voting in local elections, require that courts consider public safety when setting bail amounts, begin sports gambling in the state, limit the governor’s ability to issue health orders, put R or D next to names on the ballot for Supreme Court candidates (because 3 Democrats were elected in the past two years), allowing doctors to deny treatment if it violates their personal beliefs, enacting a 3% income tax cut, and a bill encouraging that Canada be added to a watch list of countries which violate religious freedom. (4)(5)
The 2022 Republican primary election suggests how the party has changed in Ohio in recent years. While the party used to nominate and elect mainstream conservatives like George Voinovich, John Kasich, Rob Portman, and Mike DeWine, this year’s Republican Senate hopefuls included mostly ideological extremists who are tied to Trump and the Freedom caucus (Josh Mandel, J. D. Vance, Jane Timken, and Mike Gibbons). The sole moderate Republican in the race, wealthy businessman Matt Dolan, received only 23% of Republican primary votes (i.e., 77% went to Trumpites). Endorsed by Trump, “Hillbilly Elegy” author J. D. Vance won the primary with 32% of the votes and will face Democratic candidate U.S. Rep.Tim Ryan in the general election. (13) The most recent Ohio senate poll by Suffolk University (6/2/22) shows a neck-and-neck race, with Vance leading slightly (42%) over Ryan (39%). The researchers suggest, however, that because of economic problems and Biden’s low approval ratings this gap will likely grow larger between now and the election. (1) RacetotheWH, one of the nation’s most accurate political forecasters, currently predicts winning chances of 74% for J. D. Vance and 26% for Tim Ryan, with a projected margin of victory of 3.3% for Vance. (13) In the Ohio governor’s race the Suffolk University poll found that Republican incumbent Mike DeWine has a substantial lead (45%) over Dayton mayor and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Nan Whaley (30%). (4a)
What does the future hold? If you are a Republication, you are probably feeling quite content. If a Democrat, probably anxious. The American Enterprise Institute, the Republican-affiliated conservative think tank, points out that rural areas have become much more Republican in the last three years, urban areas have become increasingly Democrat, and the suburbs are the new swing areas. Because the Ohio vote is more concentrated in rural areas and small towns, the state is likely to become more solidly red in coming years if these trends in urban-suburban-rural voting continue. (1a) I haven’t run across any sources that are more optimistic about the Democrats’ prospects. It looks like they have their work cut out for them.
Love,
Dave
SOURCES:
270towin.com, Ohio 2022 Senate Election Polls. June 3, 2022;
(1a) aei.org, Ohio, Texas, and the Future of American Politics. Dec.10, 2021;
(2) ballotpedia.org, Ohio General Assembly. Undated, accessed June 3, 2022;
(3) blogs.lse.ac.uk, What Happened?: The 2020 election confirmed that Ohio is no longer a swing state. Sept. 2, 2021;
(4a) crowdwisdom.live. Ohio Governor Race 2022 Polls. June 3, 2022;
(4) dispatch.com, “Ohio lawmakers have introduced at least 28 gun bills.” May 27, 2022.
(5) dispatch.com, “Ohio Politics: Guns in classrooms, transgender sports ban…” June 2, 2022;
(6) fivethirtyeight.com, Ohio’s Redistricting Process Has Been a Roller Coaster. Apr. 28, 2022;
(7) news.gallup.com, Conservatives Greatly Outnumber Liberals in 19 U.S. States. Feb. 22, 2019;
(8) ohiodems.org, Ohio Democratic Party Constitution and By-Laws 2021. Undated;
(9) ohiogop.org, Ohio Republican Party. Undated;
(10) ohiosos.gov, Secretary of State Provides Update on Party Affiliation Data. Oct. 1, 2021;
(11) pew research.org, Party affiliation among adults in Ohio. Undated;
(12) politico.com, Ohio presidential results. Jan. 6, 2021;
(13) racetothewh.com, Ohio Senate Forcast and Polls. Jun 3, 2022;
(14) rollcall.com, As Ohio became reliably red, the Republican Party was changing. Feb. 24, 2022;
(15) rollcall.com, New Ohio map leaves Chabot, Kaptur facing tough races this fall. May 2, 2022;
(16) en.wikipedia.org, Politics of Ohio. May 17, 2022.
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