The top news story of the past week, of course, was Kevin McCarthy’s ouster as Speaker of the House. The Speakership is one of the most important positions in the U.S. government, responsible for conducting House proceedings, setting its agenda, deciding which bills come up for debate, appointing members to committees, and representing the House in dealings with the President and the Senate. (2) The vote to oust McCarthy was not accompanied by any plan regarding his successor, and no consensus is apparent among Republican House members. Currently there are two declared candidates for the job: Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Jim Jordan (R-OH). In addition, the New York Times identifies other potential candidates including Tom Emmer (R-MN), Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Kevin Hern (R-OK), Tom Cole (R-OK), and Patrick McHenry (R-NC). (7) Here is a bit of info about each.
As House Majority Leader, Steve Scalise is seen by many as the frontrunner for the Speaker position. A staunch conservative, Scalise receives a rating of 95% by the American Conservative Union. He has repeatedly voted to appeal the Affordable Care Act, has supported tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, opposed same-sex marriage, opposed gun control, and supported voter suppression. Scalise has been criticized for his past associations with white supremacy and anti-Semitic groups. A Louisiana political reporter quoted him as describing himself as “like David Duke (the former KKK leader) without the baggage.” While a leading candidate, Scalise’s chances are diminished by opposition from far-right House Republicans who think that he is not sufficiently conservative. He is also receiving intensive treatment for blood cancer. (7)
Ohio representative Jim Jordan, the Ranking Member of the House Judiciary Committee, is the other declared candidate for the Speaker position, and Donald Trump has endorsed him for the job (which may or may not have any impact). Receiving a rating of 100% from the American Conservative Union, Jordan is one of the most conservative House members. He was the founding chairman of the far-right Freedom Caucus in the House. Known as a conservative bomb thrower (4), Jordan is one of Trump’s top allies and a leader in the impeachment inquiry into President Biden. While Jordan has strong support from the extreme wing of the Republican party, the New York Times concluded that, because of his divisiveness, he “is not likely to muster a majority of the House Republican conference.” (9)
As House Majority Whip, Tom Emmer’s profile is similar to Scalise’s. Emmer (82%, ACU) has actively supported tax cuts for the wealthy, opposed abortion rights even when the mother’s life is in danger, strongly supported gun rights, opposed environmental regulation. Critics argue that his record in Congress reflects inaction and gridlock. Because he voted to certify Biden’s election and advised Republican candidates to distance themselves from Trump, Emmer is actively opposed by Trump allies and is deemed unlikely to win sufficient support for the Speaker position. (3, 11)
Elise Stefanik (98%, ACU) is the third-ranking Republican in the House, serving as Majority Whip. Despite being regarded as a moderate Republican before Trump’s election, she became one of Trump’s most enthusiastic allies in the House, having defended him on numerous occasions, including during his impeachment trials. Stefanik objected to certification of Biden’s victory, has voted against legislation that would protect LGBTQ people from discrimination, and has spoken at events hosted by white supremacist organizations. Stefanik is seen as a rising star in the Republican Party, but it’s unclear if she has the experience or the support to become Speaker. (10)
Kevin Hern (98%, ACU) is chair of the Republican Study Committee, the largest caucus of conservative Republicans in the House, and he is popular among the Republican base. Like most of the prospective candidates he has been a vocal supporter of Trump, voted to overturn the 2020 election, supported tax cuts for the wealthy, opposed environmental regulations, supported gun rights, opposed expanded access to voting, and called for President Biden’s impeachment. Hart may be a viable candidate, but he faces challenges because of his lack of experience and his polarizing views. (7)
Tom Cole (92%, ACU) is Chair of the House Rules Committee. Like his colleagues mentioned above, Cole has opposed the Affordable Care Act, supported tax cuts for the wealthy and corporations, opposed gun control measures, opposed abortion rights, denied climate change, and supported voter suppression legislation. Cole is a respected member of the Republican Party, but he is not as well-known as Scalise or Emmer.
(1)
Patrick McHenry (89%, ACU), selected by McCarthy to be the interim Speaker of the House, is also Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. While McHenry is well-liked, he is distrusted by hard-liners because of his role in the recent deal with Democrats to avoid a government shutdown. McHenry hasn’t yet expressed interest in the permanent Speaker job. (6)
My personal opinion is that all of these candidates are nightmares and likely to have have negative consequences upon Congress and American society. Most are to the right of Kevin McCarthy, who is himself a staunch conservative. However, I do recognize that they’re typical of the current Republican Party and its leadership, as well as enjoying the approval of roughly half the country. According to Newsweek, recent bookmaker odds have Scalise the favorite (odds of 8/11, meaning if you bet $11 you would win $8), followed by Hern (9/2) Jordan (8/1), Stefanik (10/1), Emmer (14/1), and McHenry (14/1). (5) It’s surprising to me that there are no moderate Republicans who are mentioned as viable candidates for Speaker. However, moderate Republicanism is a vanishing breed in the House, and, because the party conference is controlled by the far right, it’s unlikely that any moderate could be voted into the position. Election as Speaker requires 218 votes in the 435-seat House. How any of these candidates are going to reach this magic number is an unknown. Election as Speaker is going to require voting support from hard-liners, moderate Republicans, and even some Democrats, and, with the far right in control of the House, it isn’t clear that any of the potential candidates can pull that off. With decisions about government funding and Ukraine support looming for House action in the next month or so, the outlook is scary.
Love,
Dave
SOURCES: (1) cole.house.gov; (2) housegov; (3) huffpost.com, Sept. 4, 2022; (4) nbcnews.com, Oct. 4, 2023; (5) newsweek.com, Oct. 7, 2023; (6) npr.com, Oct. 4, 2023; (7) nytimes.com, Oct. 4, 2023; (8) nytimes.com, Oct. 4, 2023; (9) nytimes.com, Oct. 2, 2023; (10) time.com, May 8, 2021; (11) time.com, Oct. 4, 2023.
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